000 AXNT20 KNHC 152321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Sally is centered near 29.5N 88.1W at 15/2100 UTC, or 74 nm S of Mobile, Alabama and 78 nm SW of Pensacola, Florida, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are currently 25 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, 90 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 150 nm in the N semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate convection extends across the eastern Gulf N of 26N between 83W-87W. A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north- northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Hurricane Paulette is centered near 39.5N 55.0W at 15/2100 UTC, or 643 nm NE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 26 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are currently 48 ft with 12 ft seas extending 270 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 nm in the SE quadrant, 420 nm in the SW quadrant, and 480 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 250 nm in the NE quadrant. Paulette will continue moving ENE with an increase in speed through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south- southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 14.6N 47.9W at 15/2100 UTC, r 777 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft with 12 ft seas extending 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 270 nm in the SE quadrant, 150 nm in the SW quadrant, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 200 nm of the N semicircle and 100 nm in the S semicircle. Teddy is expected to continue to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week. Strengthening is forecast, and Teddy could become a hurricane tonight. Teddy is forecast to be near major hurricane strength within a few days. Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 21.2N 32.1W at 15/2100 UTC, or 556 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 30 nm in the SW quadrant, and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm in the NE quadrant. Vicky is forecast to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower speed tonight and Wednesday, followed by a westward motion through dissipation. Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression on Wednesday, weaken to a remnant low Wednesday night, and dissipate by Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave has an axis along 22W/23W, southward of 15N, and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 21W-26W, a few hundred miles south- southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This convective activity has changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10-15 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains over Africa and does not extend into the Atlantic Ocean at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Sally. Outside of Hurricane Sally, a 1011 mb low is analyzed near 22N95W with a trough extending along the low from 25N94W to 20N94W. Scattered showers are noted W of the low and trough from 20N-24N between 95W-97W. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving north into the S Gulf off the coast of the Yucatan, S of 23N between 87W-90W. Convection from sea breeze across Cuba is moving off the NW coast into the SE Gulf, S of 24N between 82W-85W. Moderate to fresh NNW winds are west of the surface low, with light to gentle winds elsewhere and seas 3-6 ft. Hurricane Sally will move to 29.9N 88.1W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.6N 87.7W Wed afternoon with maximum winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and continue inland to near 31.5N 86.9W late Wed night and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N 85.3W Thu afternoon. Sally will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland to near 33.1N 83.3W late Thu night and become a remnant low well inland near 33.5N 81.0W Fri afternoon. Swells from Sally will continue to affect most of the eastern and central Gulf through the rest of the week. Elsewhere, weak low pressure will persist over the southwest Gulf through the next few days with a low chance of tropical development. Looking ahead, a weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat followed by fresh northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the Leeward Islands by Fri. Diurnally driven convection across the Greater Antilles from Cuba to the Dominican Republic is entering the Caribbean in addition to adjacent waters south of Jamaica. The monsoon trough extends near the Colombian coast from 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the SW basin S of 15N between 74W-84W. Moderate trades are N of Colombia with light to gentle trades elsewhere and seas 2-4 ft. Tropical Storm Teddy will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 48.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 16.1N 49.5W Wed morning, to near 17.4N 50.8W Wed evening, with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 18.9N 52.3W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, and continue to strengthen as it reaches to near 20.3N 53.6W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Teddy is forecast to continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward across the central Atlantic through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical Storm Vicky. Swells generated by Paulette are affecting the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. The remnant low that was once Rene is analyzed at 1015 mb near 25N52W with showers 170 nm S of the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin outside of the tropical systems. Tropical Storm Teddy will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 48.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 16.1N 49.5W Wed morning, to near 17.4N 50.8W Wed evening, with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 18.9N 52.3W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, and continue to strengthen as it reaches to near 20.3N 53.6W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Teddy is forecast to continue to strengthen as it reaches near 21.5N 55.0W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt, reach to near 24.0N 57.4W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt Sat morning. Teddy will begin to weaken as it continues to track northwest through late Sat. A front may approach the waters off northeast Florida late on Sat. $$ AReinhart