000 AXNT20 KNHC 151723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Sep 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Sally is centered near 29.1N 88.2W at 15/1500 UTC or 48 nm E of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently to 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 28N between 83W-90W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in bands elsewhere N of 23N E of 87W. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward motion tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Hurricane Paulette is centered near 38.3N 57.9W at 15/1500 UTC or 495 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 25 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the center. A faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east-southeast and south-southeast late Thursday and Friday. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 14.0N 47.0W at 15/1500 UTC or 834 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-18N between 41W-53W. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest, and a west-northwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next few days. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 20.6N 31.0W at 15/1500 UTC or 486 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 19N-24N between 27W-31W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa with axis along 20W/21W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 20W-25W. A 1010 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 09N21W. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 17N20W. No significant convection is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Sally. Elsewhere, a 1011 mb surface low is centered in the west Gulf near 22N95W. A surface trough extends from 25N95W to the low to 19N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 21N-26N between 94W-98W. This area has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW-N winds west of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere outside of Sally. Hurricane Sally is centered near 29.1N 88.2W 983 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Sally will move to near 29.6N 88.2W this evening, near 30.2N 88.1W Wed morning, with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 87.6W Wed evening. Sally will continue to weaken to weaken as it reaches near 31.9N 86.6W early Thu and weaken further to a a tropical depression near 32.6N 85.2W Thu evening. Sally will become a remnant low well inland near 33.0N 83.6W Fri morning. Elsewhere weak low pressure will persist over the southwest Gulf through Thu with a low chance of tropical development. Looking ahead, a weak front will move into the northern Gulf late on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the Leeward Islands by Fri. Elsewhere, an upper-level low centered well north of Hispaniola is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island and adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds noted within 90 nm north of the Colombian/Venezuelan coastline. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft W of 74W, and 3-5 ft E of 74W. Tropical Storm Teddy near 14.0N 47.0W 999 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Teddy will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 48.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 16.1N 49.5W Wed morning, to near 17.4N 50.8W Wed evening, with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 18.9N 52.3W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt and continue to strengthen as it reaches to near 20.3N 53.6W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Teddy is forecast to continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward across the central Atlantic through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Paulette, centered N of 32N, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical Storm Vicky. Swells generated by Paulette are affecting the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 26N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across Hispaniola and the west Atlantic north of 21N between 64W-67W. To the east, the remnants of Rene are analyzed as a 1016 mb low centered near 26N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm to the SE of the low center. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin outside of the tropical systems. T.S. Teddy is expected strengthen to a hurricane before reaches the waters well northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Fri, then continue to the NNE east of 65W through late Sat. T.S. Vicky will continue moving west while weakening. A front may approach the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat. $$ Formosa