000 AXNT20 KNHC 151055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Sally is centered near 28.9N 88.1W at 15/0900 UTC or 60 nm ESE of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving WNW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently to 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 27N between 84W-90W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in bands elsewhere N of 23N E of 90W. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Hurricane Paulette is centered near 37.0N 60.5W at 15/0900 UTC or 350 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm N semicircle and within 150 nm S semicircle of Paulette. A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn southeastward by late Thursday. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.7N 46.0W at 15/0900 UTC or 890 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-18N between 38W-51W. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest, and a west-northwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next few days. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane late today and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 20.3N 30.1W at 15/0900 UTC or 430 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 19N-23N between 25W-30W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is offshore of the W coast of Africa with axis along 19W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and convection is noted from 05N-14N between 16W-25W. The area of showers and thunderstorms has become more concentrated during the past several hours, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days with a medium chance in the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 20N23W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N76W then across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 78W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Sally. Elsewhere, a 1010 mb surface low is centered in the west-central Gulf near 22N95W along a surface trough that extends from 24N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted along the trough and in the vicinity of the low from 19N-25N and west of 95W. This area has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted west of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere outside of Sally. Hurricane Sally near 28.9N 88.1W 983 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Sally will move to 29.2N 88.4W this afternoon, 29.9N 88.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.6N 88.3W Wed afternoon, inland to 31.4N 87.5W Thu morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.2N 86.2W Thu afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 32.8N 84.6W Fri morning. Sally will change little in intensity as it moves near 33.2N 81.3W early Sat. Otherwise, a weak front will move into the northern Gulf late on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the Leeward Islands by Fri. Elsewhere, an upper-level low centered well north of Hispaniola is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island and adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds noted within 90 nm north of the Colombian/Venezuelan coastline. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft W of 74W, and 3-5 ft E of 74W. Teddy will move to 14.4N 47.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 48.7W Wed morning, 16.8N 50.0W Wed afternoon, 18.2N 51.5W Thu morning, 19.7N 52.9W Thu afternoon, and 21.0N 54.2W Fri morning. Teddy will change little in intensity as it moves farther north early Sat. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades through Sat, with fresh trades pulsing at night over the south-central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Paulette, centered N of 32N, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical Storm Vicky. Swells generated by Paulette are affecting the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 26N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across Hispaniola and the west Atlantic north of 21N between 64W-67W. To the east, the remnants of T.D. Rene are analyzed as a 1012 mb low centered near 25N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm to the SE of the low center. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin outside of the tropical systems. T.S. Teddy is expected strengthen to a hurricane before reaches the waters well northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Fri, then continue to the NNE east of 65W through late Sat. T.S. Vicky will continue moving west while weakening. A front may approach the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat. $$ Torres/Ramos