000 AXNT20 KNHC 141101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...T.S. SALLY... Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 28.3N 87.3W at 14/0900 UTC or 150 nm SE of Biloxi, Mississippi moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 27N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection in bands is elsewhere N of 23N E of 89W. The center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...HURRICANE PAULETTE... Hurricane Paulette is centered near 32.3N 64.7W at 14/0900 UTC or 0 nm E of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted N of 29N between 61W and 67W. The eye of Paulette will continue to pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours, followed by passage of the southern portion of the eyewall. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...T.D. RENE... Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.4N 48.3W at 14/0900 UTC or 970 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 26N to 29N between 44W and 49W. A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...T.S. TEDDY... Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.4N 40.4W at 14/0900 UTC or 960 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 40W-45W. Scattered moderate convection in bands is elsewhere from 07N-15N between 35W-48W. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...T.D. TWENTY-ONE... Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 18.5N 28.3W at 14/0900 UTC or 290 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 24N between 21W and 32W. Some slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that time. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to the 1009 mb low near 18N28W to 14N34W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Special Features section, scattered showers are noted along the remainder of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is currently producing seas to near 17 ft near its center. Sally is expected to strengthens to a hurricane over the north central Gulf today. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N90W to 22N94W. Scattered showers are noted west of 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted in the SW Gulf from 23N- 27N between 94W to the southeast coast of Texas and Mexico. Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, the surface trough and low over the western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone formation. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean south of 14N. This activity is enhanced by an upper-level low over the SW Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through Tue. Large swell associated with Twenty is forecast to affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical Depression Twenty-One west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Elsewhere, scattered showers are currently noted within 120 nm of the east coast of Florida. This activity is associated with the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally, which is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning. Tropical Storm Teddy will move to 13.8N 42.4W this afternoon, 14.3N 44.8W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 46.7W Tue afternoon, 15.9N 48.2W Wed morning, 16.9N 49.5W Wed afternoon, and 18.3N 50.8W Thu morning. Teddy will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.0N 53.1W early Fri. Tropical Depression Twenty-One will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.6N 28.6W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 20.5N 29.6W Tue morning, move to 21.3N 30.9W Tue afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.9N 32.8W Wed morning, 22.4N 34.8W Wed afternoon, and 22.8N 36.9W Thu morning. Twenty-One will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.4N 41.0W early Fri. $$ Torres/Ramos