000 AXNT20 KNHC 132206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...T.S. SALLY... Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.8N 85.9W at 13/2100 UTC or 140 nm S of Panama City Florida moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE quadrant and 210 nm SE quad. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere E of 87W. Sally will move west northwestward over the north- central Gulf of Mexico tonight, with a slower northwestward motion on Monday when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. Further strengthening is expected, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding due to very heavy rainfall for the central Gulf Coast Monday through the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...HURRICANE PAULETTE... Hurricane Paulette is centered near 30.6N 63.1W at 13/2100 UTC or 130 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 28N to 33N between 60W and 66W. Paulette will move near Bermuda tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...T.D. RENE... Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.3N 47.6W at 13/2100 UTC or 990 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm eastern semicircle. Rene is forecast to continue weakening and become a remnant low on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...T.D. TWENTY... Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.7N 37.6W at 13/2100 UTC or 820 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm S and 30 nm N semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 33W and 40W. A motion to the west or west-northwest is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE... A 1009 mb low is located near 17.5N28W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N- 20N between 22W-32W. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains elongated. However, environmental conditions are conducive for a short-lived tropical depression to form over the next day or so while the low moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16.5N16W to a 1009 mb low near 17.5N28W to 15N31W. It resumes from 10N40W to 11N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Special Features section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-12N between 40W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is currently producing seas to near 20 ft near its center. Peak seas associated with Sally are forecast to increase to over 25 ft Monday as it strengthens to a hurricane over the north central Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Sally. Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low near 24N93W is along a surface trough that extends from 26N96W to 24N90W. Scattered showers and tstorms cover much of the western Gulf of Mexico west of 92W. Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, a surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone formation. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is producing scattered strong convection over the SW Caribbean south of 14N. This convection is being enhanced by an upper-level low over the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the Caribbean Sea during the next 5 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression Twenty, and low pres west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Elsewhere, scattered gusty showers and tstorms are currently seen within 60 nm of the east coasts of Florida and Georgia. This activity is associated with the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally, which is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning. Tropical Depression Twenty will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N 39.5W Mon morning, and reach hurricane intensity hurricane near 14.7N 46.3W Tue afternoon. The system will maintain hurricane strength as it moves near the offshore Atlantic waters well east of the Leeward Islands Thu afternoon. Large swell associated with this system is forecast to affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week. $$ AL