000 AXNT20 KNHC 131053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...T.S. SALLY... Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.0N 84.0W at 13/0900 UTC or 105 nm W of Port Charlotte Florida moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 23N- 28N between 80W- 85W. The center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Further strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...HURRICANE PAULETTE... Hurricane Paulette is centered near 29.4N 60.8W at 13/0900 UTC or 270 nm SE of Bermuda moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 28N-31N between 58W-64W. The center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...T.D. RENE... Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 26.2N 47.1W at 13/0900 UTC or 1010 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered showers amd tstms are noted from 24N-28N between 44W-49W. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...T.D. TWENTY... Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.2N 35.5W at 13/0900 UTC or 1515 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-15N between 32W-46W. Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and it could become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave with axis along 26W, south of 21N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-19N between 21W-32W. Environmental conditions support some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next two or three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper-level winds should become less conducive for development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC waters. The wave's axis extends along 90W and south of 19N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N-18N between 90W-95W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 12N31W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either sides of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Sally. A surface trough extends from 26N94W to 22N92W with scattered showers in the vicinity. Scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds north of 26N and west of 93W, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 26N between 86W-93W. Seas are 4-6 ft in this region based on recent buoy observations. Sally will move to 27.7N 85.4W this afternoon, 28.3N 87.2W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.7N 88.7W Mon afternoon, 29.2N 89.7W Tue morning, 30.1N 90.0W Tue afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 90.0W Wed morning. Sally will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 32.8N 88.6W early Thu. Otherwise, the surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone formation. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean through late Tue as Hurricane Paulette continue to move northwest and then northeast over the north- central Atlantic waters. Surface ridging will establish over the SW Atlantic waters afterwards, resulting in moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through Tue. Otherwise, large swell associated with current Tropical Depression Twenty is forecast to affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression Twenty, and the active tropical wave moving across the basin. Outside of the tropical systems named above, light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic waters S of 20N and W of 35W. Seas in this area are generally 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, swell associated with Paulette has spread across much of the region W of 50W, with seas 8 ft or greater in the offshore waters as far as 70W. Paulette will move to 30.2N 62.5W this afternoon, 31.8N 64.4W Mon morning, 34.0N 65.0W Mon afternoon, 35.9N 62.4W Tue morning, 37.8N 57.9W Tue afternoon, and 39.3N 54.0W Wed morning. Paulette will change little in intensity as it moves near 42.0N 46.0W early Thu. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and continue to build seas today into early next week. $$ Torres/Ramos