000 AXNT20 KNHC 130601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...T.S. SALLY... Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 26.3N 82.9W at 13/0300 UTC or 60 nm SW of Port Charlotte Florida moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-28N between 79W-84W. A northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...HURRICANE PAULETTE... The now Hurricane Paulette is centered near 28.9N 59.7W at 13/0300 UTC or 335 nm SE of Bermuda moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 240 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 180 nm SW quadrant, and 210 nm NW quadrant with peak seas to 31 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 27N- 31N between 58W-64W. A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...T.D. RENE... Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 25.3N 46.4W at 13/0300 UTC or 1020 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 24N-26N between 45W-48W. A slower northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday, the system is expected to weaken to a remnant low as it moves west-southwestward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...T.D. TWENTY... Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 11.9N 34.6W at 13/0300 UTC or 1560 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-14N between 32W-41W. The system is forecast to continue moving WNW and become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and a hurricane within the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave with axis along 25W from 07N-21N. Scattered showers are noted from 14N-18N between 24W-30W. Environmental conditions support some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next two or three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper- level winds should become less conducive for development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC waters. The wave's axis extends along 90W and south of 20N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-20N between 87W-93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 13N32W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either sides of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Sally. The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is analyzed across the north central gulf waters from 30N94W to 28N95W. To the south, a surface trough extends from 27N91W to 24N92W. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds north of 26N and west of 93W, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 26N between 86W-93W. Seas are 4-6 ft in this region based on recent buoy observations. Tropical Storm Sally will move to 27.0N 84.4W Sun morning, to 27.7N 86.0W Sun evening, 28.3N 87.5W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.8N 88.6W Mon evening, 29.4N 89.2W Tue morning, and 30.1N 89.5W Tue evening. Sally will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over near 31.7N 89.1W late Wed. The surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone formation. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient over the basin is supporting light to gentle winds across the region, with some moderate trades noted near the northern coast of Colombia. Swell from distant Tropical Storm Paulette continues impacting the Atlantic and Caribbean passages. Seas ranging between 2-4 ft are noted in the south-central waters, while seas of 3 ft or less prevail elsewhere. Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean through late Tue as Hurricane Paulette continue to move northwest and then northeast over the north-central Atlantic waters. Surface ridging with establish over the SW Atlantic waters afterwards, increasing winds to moderate to fresh. Moderate southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through Tue. Otherwise, large swell associated with current Tropical Depression 20 is forecast to affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, and Tropical Depression Twenty, and the active tropical wave moving across the basin. Outside of the tropical systems named above, light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic waters S of 20N and W of 35W. Seas in this area are generally 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, swell associated with Paulette has spread across much of the region W of 50W, with seas 8 ft or greater in the offshore waters as far as 70W. Hurricane Paulette near 28.9N 59.7W 981 will move to 29.7N 61.6W Sun morning, 31.0N 63.8W Sun evening, 32.6N 65.0W Mon morning, 34.5N 64.0W Mon evening, 36.2N 61.0W Tue morning, and 37.7N 57.5W Tue evening. Paulette will change little in intensity as it moves near 41.0N 49.0W late Wed. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and continue to build seas this weekend into early next week. T.D. Rene is not expected to strengthen, but could approach areas northeast of the Leeward Islands toward the middle of next week. Tropical Depression Twenty may approach the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters toward the end of next week. $$ ERA