000 AXNT20 KNHC 121133 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/0900 UTC, is near 25.6N 80.7W. NINETEEN is moving W, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and tstms are from 21N to 27N between 77W and 82W. NINETEEN is forecast to move across Florida this morning, and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/0900 UTC, is near 26.8N 56.1W. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 310 degrees, at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 26N to 31N between 53W and 62W. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 12/0900 UTC, is near 22.5N 43.5W. RENE is moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 24N between 43W and 46W. A slower north-northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Little change in intensity is expected, and a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 11N31W associated with the tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 20W and 37W. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea extending southward from 20N with axis near 89W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 14N20W to 12N27W, then resumes near 10N36W and continues along 13N46W to 13N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 29W and 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 14N between 42W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Nineteen inland near 25.6N 80.7W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move to 26.1N 82.0W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.9N 83.8W Sun morning, 27.9N 85.4W Sun afternoon, 28.7N 86.6W Mon morning, 29.3N 87.7W Mon afternoon, and 29.6N 88.5W Tue morning, then move inland to 30.5N 90.0W early Wed. A line of scattered showers extends across the SE Gulf from SE Louisiana to the coast of northern Cuba. A stationary front extends across the western Gulf from the Texas/Louisiana border to the western Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, A surface trough across the central Gulf will drift westward over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Heavy showers and tstms associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen continue to affect central Cuba and adjacent waters. Scattered showers and tstms are over southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic being supported by upper level diffluent flow. In the SW Caribbean, the extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia continue to generate scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 11N. Otherwise, with a weak pressure gradient N of the area, gentle to locally moderate winds dominate the Caribbean waters, with the highest winds being in the central basin. Tropical Storm Paulette centered near 26.8N 56.1W 987 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend. Low pressure associated with a strong tropical wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters the middle of next week. Please, see the Special Features section for further details on Paulette. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene are located in the central Atlantic, and a developing area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered near 11N31W. Please, see the Special Features section for further details on Paulette and Rene. Tropical Storm Paulette near 26.8N 56.1W 987 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near 28.0N 58.0W this afternoon, move to 29.2N 60.5W Sun morning, 30.3N 62.9W Sun afternoon, move north of the area to 31.8N 64.8W Mon morning, 33.5N 65.2W Mon afternoon, and 35.2N 63.2W Tue morning. Tropical Storm Rene near 22.5N 43.5W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Rene will move to 23.7N 44.9W this afternoon, 25.4N 46.3W Sun morning, 26.6N 47.3W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 27.2N 47.7W Mon morning, 27.1N 48.1W Mon afternoon, 26.7N 49.1W Tue morning, and 25.5N 52.0W early Wed. Tropical Depression Nineteen is inland near 25.6N 80.7W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread eastward across the offshore waters and continue to build seas this weekend into early next week. $$ Mundell