000 AXNT20 KNHC 120851 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 25.7N 80.2W. NINETEEN is about 10 nm/15 km to the SSE of Miami Florida. NINETEEN is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and tstms are from 21N to 29N between 75W and 86W. NINETEEN is forecast to move WNW, across Florida, during the day on Saturday. It is forecast to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon hours of Saturday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 25.8N 54.8W. PAULETTE is about 650 nm/1210 km to the SE of Bermuda. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 25N to 31N between 52W and 61W. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 21.4N 42.4W. RENE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 23N between 42W and 45W. A turn toward the northwest followed by a slower north- northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 19N with axis near 30W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 11N30W associated with the tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 19W and 35W. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea extending southward from 20N with axis near 88W, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and tstms are over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 14N20W to 12N27W, then resumes near 10N36W and continues along 13N46W to 13N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 29W and 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 14N between 42W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical storm in the SE Gulf near 26.8N 82.9W Sat evening, 27.9N 84.6W Sun morning, 28.8N 85.9W Sun evening, 29.3N 86.9W Mon morning, and 29.7N 87.7W Mon evening. Nineteen will move inland to 30.2N 89.5W late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh northerly winds behind a stationary front in the western Gulf will weaken overnight. A surface trough across the central Gulf will drift westward over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Heavy showers and tstms associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen continue to affect central Cuba and adjacent waters. Scattered showers and tstms are over southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic being supported by upper level diffluent flow. In the SW Caribbean, the extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia continue to generate scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 11N. Otherwise, with a weak pressure gradient N of the area, gentle to locally moderate winds dominate the Caribbean waters, with the highest winds being in the central basin. Tropical Storm Paulette centered near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend. A tropical wave in the W Caribbean will exit the basin overnight. Low pressure associated with a strong tropical wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters the middle of next week. Please, see the Special Features section for further details on Paulette. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Paulette near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 56.5W Sat morning, move to 28.5N 58.8W Sat evening, 29.6N 61.2W Sun morning, 30.7N 63.7W Sun evening, move north of the area to 32.1N 65.1W Mon morning, and 33.8N 65.0W Mon evening. Tropical Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W Sat morning. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread eastward across the offshore waters and continue to build seas this weekend into early next week. Please, see the Special Features section for further details on Paulette and Nineteen. $$ Ramos