000 AXNT20 KNHC 120551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 25.7N 80.2W. NINETEEN is about 10 nm/15 km to the SSE of Miami Florida. NINETEEN is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. NINETEEN is forecast to move WNW, across Florida, during the day on Saturday. It is forecast to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon hours of Saturday. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the S quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 25.8N 54.8W. PAULETTE is about 650 nm/1210 km to the SE of Bermuda. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 21.4N 42.4W. RENE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 160 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 30W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 11.5N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 13N. A tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days, while the system moves generally westward 15 to 20 mph, across the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave passes through parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and El Salvador, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula within 150 nm to the W of the tropical wave, and in NW Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong also is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, in parts of Central America, from 10N to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 14N20W, to 12Nthe north of the border with Senegal, and then to 14N20W and 12N27W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 16N between 20W and 25W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs from 08N36W to 12N45W to 13N56W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is from 26N to 27N between 93W and 94W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to 27N95W in the western Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front continues southward, along 95W, to 19N. The stationary front continues westward, into Mexico, to 20N100W, and then northwestward in Mexico to 30N108W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 27N southward from 92W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the east of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Yucatan Channel. Tropical Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical storm in the SE Gulf near 26.8N 82.9W Sat evening, 27.9N 84.6W Sun morning, 28.8N 85.9W Sun evening, 29.3N 86.9W Mon morning, and 29.7N 87.7W Mon evening. Nineteen will move inland to 30.2N 89.5W late Tue. Fresh northerly winds, behind a stationary front that is in the western Gulf of Mexico, will weaken overnight. A surface trough that is in the central Gulf of Mexico will drift westward during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave passes through parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and El Salvador, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula within 150 nm to the W of the tropical wave, and in NW Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong also is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, in parts of Central America, from 10N to 15N. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 120 nm to the SSW of Jamaica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is in the coastal waters of the SW part of the Dominican Republic, and in southern Haiti. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the Caribbean Sea coast of Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 70W westward. Scattered moderate to strong covers Venezuela and Colombia from 08N to 10N between 72W and 74W, and in the area of the border of Colombia and Panama, and in the Gulf of Uraba. Tropical Storm Paulette centered near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend. A tropical wave in the W Caribbean will exit the basin overnight. Low pressure associated with a strong tropical wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle of the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Paulette near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 56.5W Sat morning, move to 28.5N 58.8W Sat evening, 29.6N 61.2W Sun morning, 30.7N 63.7W Sun evening, move north of the area to 32.1N 65.1W Mon morning, and 33.8N 65.0W Mon evening. Tropical Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W Sat morning. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread eastward across the offshore waters, and continue to build seas from this weekend into early next week. $$ mt