106 AXNT20 KNHC 110940 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 540 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 11/0900 UTC, is near 23.1N 51.7W. PAULETTE is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm north of the center. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere within 400 nm north of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 11/0900 UTC, is near 19.7N 38.5W. RENE is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm west of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 23W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Gradual development of this system is forecast. A tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for updates. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 16N between 17W and 21W, and from 09N to 14N between 23W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 17N from 30W eastward. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is between Haiti and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are from Haiti westward, and inland in Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania, just to the north of the border with Senegal, and then to 14N20W and 14N29W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the waters that are from 05N to 15N between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 86W, from NW Cuba toward the Florida Panhandle. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented inverted trough extends from SE Louisiana toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is just east of the Texas coast, and it continues southward to the coast of Mexico along 20N, and then the front curves northwestward, inland in Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers the inland areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, in Guatemala, and in the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough that is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward the next few days. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across the area through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is between Haiti and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are from Haiti westward, and inland in Honduras and Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, between 73W in Colombia and beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 70W westward. Tropical Storm Paulette near 23.1N 51.7W 991 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Large swell associated with T. S. Paulette will reach the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will exit the basin tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 78W, from the coast of Cuba to 31N. This trough is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday. It will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Upper level winds are expected to become conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form, while this system moves slowly toward the west-northwest in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in South Florida and in the Florida Keys, during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Paulette near 23.1N 51.7W 991 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Paulette will move to 23.9N 53.1W this afternoon, 25.3N 54.9W Sat morning, 26.8N 56.7W Sat afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.2N 58.8W Sun morning, 29.5N 61.2W Sun afternoon, 30.7N 63.3W Mon morning, and move north of the area Tue. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread into the waters east of the Bahamas today, and continue to build this weekend. A surface trough east of Florida will drift westward through the remainder of the week. $$ Mundell