000 AXNT20 KNHC 102329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2250 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 22.1N 50.1W at 10/2100 UTC or 770 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 NM in the NE semicircle. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.9N 36.8W at 10/2100 UTC or 750 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 NM of the center. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 20W is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 15N between 17W and 23W. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates at https://hurricanes.gov . ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 20W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is described in the Special Features section above. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 81W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 10N30W. The circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene have disrupted the typical monsoon flow and ITCZ over the remaining eastern and central Atlantic waters. Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across Central America from Costa Rica at 09N78W to a 1009 mb low at the northern coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Significant convection is described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from the central Texas coast near 28N96W to the east coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends across the E Gulf from 29N86W to 23N84W, with scattered showers near the trough axis. Gentle winds prevail across much of the basin with some moderate to fresh N winds over the extreme W Gulf. A surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through the remainder of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. The system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next two days. Elsewhere, surface ridging will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper- level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the Caribbean waters today. Scatterometer data from earlier today showed gentle to moderate trades prevailing across the basin. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Caribbean. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are shown in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore Cuba and Hispaniola. Large swells associated with Paulette will spread through the Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean will exit the basin by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa. A low pressure trough is analyzed over and north of the NW Bahamas extending from 30N77W to 24N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 28N between 73W and 77W. Scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh winds are found east of this trough across the northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, a large area of strong winds is shown within 420 NM in the N semicircle of T.S. Paulette, and a recent altimeter pass indicates 12-ft or greater seas extend 600 NM across the large tropical storm. Swell from Paulette is spreading across the central Atlantic waters towards the Leeward Islands, and recent altimeter data show 8 ft or greater seas building over the offshore waters E of 60W. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow persists N of 20N between 35W and 65W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing between the Canary Islands and Western Sahara. Swells associated with Paulette are beginning to spread into the waters E of the Bahamas and will continue to propagate and build through the weekend. Elsewhere, the trough east of Florida will drift west through the remainder of the week, though no tropical development of it is expected over the Atlantic. $$ Landsea