000 AXNT20 KNHC 101717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 21.5N 49.1W at 10/1500 UTC or 935 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 330 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 210 nm SW quadrant, and 360 nm NW quadrant with peak seas near 29 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N semicircle. Paulette remains a sheared tropical storm with an exposed low-level center. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Some additional slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but then Paulette is forecast to restrengthen by Sat. Paulette could become a hurricane by Sun or Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.6N 35.8W at 10/1500 UTC or 800 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 0 nm S semicircle, 90 nm NE quadrant and 60 nm NW quadrant with peak seas near 14 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm W semicircle. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 18W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 16W and 22W. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 18W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is described in the Special Features section above. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 80W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 11N23W. The circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene have disrupted the typical monsoon flow over the remaining eastern and central Atlantic waters. Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across Central America from near the Costa Rica/Panama border at 10N83W to the northern coast of Colombia near 11N73W. Significant convection is described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed from the upper Texas coast near 29N96W to the northern coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the far western Gulf in the vicinity of the boundary. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends across the eastern Gulf from 29N83W to 24N88W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms near the trough axis over the NE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail across much of the basin, with some moderate easterly winds over the SW Gulf. A recent altimeter pass, along with buoy observations across the western Gulf, indicate seas are generally 2-4 ft. A surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through the remainder of the week. Surface ridging will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the Caribbean waters today. Recent scatterometer data show gentle winds prevail across much of the basin, with moderate winds noted offshore the northern coast of Colombia. A small area of moderate winds is also noted south of Hispaniola. Seas of 4-6 ft are found through the Atlantic passages in long-period, easterly swell. Elsewhere, wave heights are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the western Caribbean. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are shown in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore Cuba and Hispaniola. Large swells associated with Paulette will spread through the Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean will exit the basin by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa. A low pressure trough is analyzed offshore the NW Bahamas, extending from 30N76W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough axis to 70W. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to perhaps locally fresh winds are found well east of this trough across the northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong winds is shown within 540 nm N semicircle of T.S. Paulette, and a recent altimeter pass indicates 12-ft or greater seas extend well N of the storm center. Swell from Paulette is spreading across the central Atlantic waters towards the Leeward Islands, and recent altimeter data show 8 ft or greater seas building over the offshore waters E of 60W. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow persists N of 20N between 35W and 65W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing between the Canary Islands and Western Sahara. Swells associated with Paulette are beginning to spread into the waters E of the Bahamas and will continue to propagate and build through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface trough NE-E of Florida will drift W through the remainder of the week. $$ B Reinhart