000 AXNT20 KNHC 100909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 509 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 20.9N 49.0W at 10/0900 UTC or 810 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is a sheared tropical storm with an exposed center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 420 nm in the NE quadrant and between 30 nm and 90 nm in the SE quadrant. Paulette is moving toward the W-NW and this general motion is expected to continue through Fri. A NW motion should begin Fri evening and continue into the weekend. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Restrengthening is expected to commence over the weekend and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane early Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.2N 34.8W at 10/0900 UTC or 630 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the NW semicircle and 60 nm in the SE semicircle. Rene is moving toward the W-NW. This general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days, followed by a turn toward the NW. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is inland over western Africa along 16W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 270-420 nm of the coast of Africa. Gradual development is anticipated once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is inland over western Africa and is described in detail in the Special Features section above. A tropical wave axis is along 84W from the NW Caribbean Sea southward across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and central Costa Rica, moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the water with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection W of the wave axis over western Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... No monsoon trough is noted over the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean due to the circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene. A trough extends from SW of Tropical Storm Paulette near 14N46W to 09N57W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across Central America from the Costa Rica/Panama border at 10N83W to the N coast of Colombia near 10N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N between 20W- 31W, from 10N-13N between 29W-35W, and within 180 nm SE of the trough SW of Paulette. Similar convection is noted of the coast of Guyana S of 09N and W of 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed over SE Texas to across northern Mexico. A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay Florida SW to N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N88W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted along and E-SE of the trough including over portions of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Earlier scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate E-SE across the basin. Seas are 3 ft or less, except locally to 4 ft offshore of Texas. The front over SE Texas and northern Mexico will stall along the coast or just off the coast over the inner coastal waters later today, where it will linger through the remainder of the week before dissipating. The surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through the week while slowly dissipating. Otherwise, surface ridging will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Other than the tropical wave in the western Caribbean, no significant surface features are noted across the basin. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted across the basin on mainly gentle trade winds with seas of 3 ft or less W of 72W and 2-4 ft E of 72W. Seas of 4-6 ft are found through the Atlantic passages in long period easterly swell. Large swells associated with Paulette will continue to spread and build through the Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages by the end of the week into the weekend. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will exit the basin by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave over Western Africa. An area of low pressure that was centered well SE of the Carolinas has degenerated into a surface trough per recent observations. Some disorganized isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the low. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across the waters W of 65W. Moderate SE flow is noted across the NE half of the basin with gentle to locally moderate E-SE flow across the SW half of the basin. Seas of 4-7 ft in long period easterly swell are found E of the Bahamas with seas of 3 ft or less W of the Bahamas. Large swells associated with Paulette will continue to spread and build into the waters E of the Bahamas through the end of the week through the weekend. Elsewhere, the surface trough from NE of Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay area will drift W through the remainder of the week. $$ Lewitsky