000 AXNT20 KNHC 100554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 10/0300 UTC, is near 20.9N 48.1W. PAULETTE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 230 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere within 440 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 10/0300 UTC, is near 18.0N 34.0W. RENE is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 14W/15W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Gradual development is anticipated once the system moves over water. A tropical depression is expected to form late this week or during the weekend, while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 14N between 10W and 20W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the waters that are from 16N southward from 80W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ is along 16N53W 13N58W 11N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward between 53W and 63W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 53W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level NE-to-SW oriented inverted trough passes through the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers the inland areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and Guatemala and the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 16N to 20N between 90W and 93W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N80W, through NE Florida, to just to the north of Tampa in Florida, to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Gulf of Mexico and the inland areas of Florida from 86W eastward. A surface trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will drift W through the week. Surface ridging will extend across the Gulf of Mexico, leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola, southwestward, to Costa Rica and Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Caribbean Sea from the 16N northward from Hispaniola westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N, between 73W in Colombia and beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 70W westward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the waters that are from 16N southward from 80W westward. Tropical Storm Paulette near 20.9N 48.1W 996 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Paulette will move to 21.3N 49.5W Thu morning, 21.4N 51.5W Thu evening, 21.9N 53.2W Fri morning, 22.8N 54.6W Fri evening, 24.1N 55.9W Sat morning, and 25.8N 57.3W Sat evening. Paulette will strengthen as it moves to 29.0N 62.0W late Sun, and is forecast to reach hurricane strength near 31.0N 65.0W late Mon. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread through the Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages by the end of the week into the weekend. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will exit the basin by late Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 31.5N 71.5W. This area of low pressure has become less organized since yesterday. The low pressure center is forecast to move northwestward 10 to 15 mph. Some development is possible, still, before it moves inland into eastern North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Anyone who has interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this situation. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a NW-to-SE oriented inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 60W westward. This weather is forecast to drift westward. It is likely to be in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. It is possible that upper level conditions may become conducive for some development this weekend, while the system drifts west-northwestward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Paulette near 20.9N 48.1W 996 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Paulette will move to 21.3N 49.5W Thu morning, 21.4N 51.5W Thu evening, 21.9N 53.2W Fri morning, 22.8N 54.6W Fri evening, 24.1N 55.9W Sat morning, and 25.8N 57.3W Sat evening. Paulette will strengthen as it moves to 29.0N 62.0W late Sun, and is forecast to reach hurricane strength near 31.0N 65.0W late Mon. Large swells associated with Paulette will spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the week through the weekend. A surface trough from of NE Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay area will drift W through the week. Low pressure 1013 mb near 31N75W will drift W through the week well N of the Bahamas. $$ mt