000 AXNT20 KNHC 091754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...PAULETTE... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 20.0N 46.5W at 09/1500 UTC or 950 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is sheared with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection noted within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 180 nm NW quad. A W to WNW motion should continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the NW Friday night and Saturday. Some slight weakening is forecast during the next couple days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...RENE... Rene has re-strengthened to a tropical storm and is centered near 17.6N 31.5W at 09/1500 UTC, or 445 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the W semicircle and within 60 nm in the E semicircle. Rene will continue moving W-NW for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the NW. Rene is forecast to continue strengthening, and it could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA... A tropical wave over west Africa along 10/11W is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa on Thursday. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-17N, between 07W-17W, including over west Africa. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 79/80W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the wave axis from Panama to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... No monsoon trough is noted in the eastern and central Atlantic due to the circulations of Paulette and Rene. The ITCZ extends from 12N50W to 11N60W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 11N74W to near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W and beyond. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted along and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate convection is seen in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia from 10N-14N between 73W-78W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida SW to 22.5N89W. This trough exists in this location from the surface to 700 mb. The GOES-16 mid-level water vapor channel and TPW imagery show abundant moisture over the far eastern Gulf and over the Florida peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 23.5N-28N, between 80W-84.5W, including over the southern half of the Florida peninsula. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the NE Gulf east of 90W and north of 27.5N. Similar convection is over western Cuba and off the N coast of western Cuba. Farther west, a cold front is over central Texas. Isolated showers and tstorms are streaming out ahead of the front to areas along the coast of Texas. Gentle wind speeds prevail across the SE and south-central Gulf, with moderate winds over the NE Gulf and the western Gulf. The surface trough extending from Tampa Bay to 22.5N89W will drift W through the week. High pressure N-NE of the area will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection associated with the tropical wave along 80W and the east Pacific monsoon trough are described in the sections above. Upper-level diffluence in the NW Caribbean Sea is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 20N between 80.5W-85W, including over western Cuba. Farther east, an upper-level trough that is most pronounced south of the Dominican Republic is inducing isolated to scattered moderate showers and tstorms between Puerto Rico and Jamaica, from 16N-20N, including near the Windward and Mona passages. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate trades between 60W-76W. Gentle trades prevail west of 76W. Large swells associated with Tropical Storm Paulette may spread through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into the weekend from the Leeward Islands to the Mona Passage. Paulette is forecast to pass more than 450 nm NE of the Caribbean on Saturday when the center moves near 24N56W on a NW course. Elsewhere, the tropical wave along 80W will decelerate as it moves W through the western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene. A 1012 mb low is analyzed near 31N73W. The low is forecast to move NW. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Carolinas late Thursday. Scattered moderate and isolated strong conevction are noted N of 21N between 62W-74W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 27N48W to 25N59W to 31N70W, enhancing the aforementioned convection. Additional showers and tstorms extend from the NW Bahamas through South Florida, partially due to a low-level trough that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Tampa Bay to St. Augustine Florida. A stationary front extends from Cape Hatteras to 31N80W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds to the NE of a line from 20N57W to 30N71W, with moderate winds SW of that line, and gentle winds west of 74W. Tropical Storm Paulette will move to near 21N50W Thu morning, 21N53W Fri morning, and 24N56W Sat morning. Paulette will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27N59W by early Sun. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the week through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface trough from NE of St. Augustine Florida to SW of Tampa Bay will drift W through Thu. $$ Hagen