461 AXNT20 KNHC 091004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 19.2N 45.6W at 09/0900 UTC or 1250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is sheared wtih numerous moderate and scattered strong convection noted within 180 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 19N-24N between 40W-47W. Paulette is moving toward the W and a slightly faster motion toward the W-NW is expected later today, followed by a temporary westward motion on Thu. A turn back toward the W-NW is expected on Fri. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening anticipated on Thu and Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 17.4N 30.5W at 09/0900 UTC or 380 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the W semicircle and within 60 nm in the E semicircle. The depression is moving toward the W-NW and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the NW. Satellite imagery shows that the system is becoming better organized, and Rene is expected to regain tropical storm strength later today and become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is inland over Africa along 07W/08W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area is along the wave near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is noted well out ahead of the wave including within 240 nm of the W coast of Africa from 05N- 14N. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This area has a low probability of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. A tropical wave axis is along 78W from southern Cuba to across Jamaica to near the Panama/Colombia border, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... No monsoon trough is noted in the eastern and central Atlantic due to the circulations of Paulette and Rene. The ITCZ extends from 12N50W to just S of Barbados near 13N60W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 11N73W to near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W and beyond. Scattered modreate convection is noted from 10N-33W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm E-SE of a line from 19N44W to 14N46W to 12N50W, and from 07N-10N between 57W-61W. Similar convection is noted over the SW Caribbean Sea and northern Colombia from 10N-12N between 72W-77W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida SW to just N of the Yucatan Channel near 24N86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted SE of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure centered NE of the basin extends into the area W of the trough. Gentle to moderate E-SE flow is noted across the basin, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-4 ft off the Texas coast where winds are the strongest. The trough will drift W across the basin through the week, dissipating by the weekend with high pressure rebuilding from NE of the area in the wake. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette. Other than the tropical wave approaching the western Caribbean as is described above, no significant surface features are in the basin. Weak and broad high pressure remains N-NE of the basin maintaining gentle to moderate E-SE flow. Seas are 3 ft or less W of 70W, and 2-4 ft E of 70W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across western Cuba N of 20N between 82W-85W due to a mid to upper leve low. Isolated convection is noted along and off the SW coast of Haiti, SE of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and across the Caribbean coastal waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave will move W through the western Caribbean for the remainder of the week, while the weak high pressure remains N-NE of the basin. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene. A 1012 mb low is analyzed well NE of the Bahamas near 30.5N73W along a N to S trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong conevction is noted N of 22N between 67W-73W with additional isolated convection noted from 20N-30N between 60W-67W under an area of upper level diffluence. A stationary front is located about 40-60 nm offshore of the Carolinas, with a trailing trough continuing SW across Daytona Beach Florida to Tampa Bay Florida. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these features. Mainly gentle to moderate SE-S flow dominates the SW N Atlantic basin, except light and variable winds SW of the low pressure area. Seas are 3 ft or less SW-W of the Bahamas, and 3-6 ft elsewhere in mixed easterly swell. The low and trough will move slowly W-NW toward the coasts of South and North Carolina, and gradual development of the low is possible during the next 2-3 days. The stationary front off the Carolinas will linger, dissipating by the end of the week. The surface trough extending SW of the front will drift W across the Florida Peninsula through mid-week. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the week through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky