000 AXNT20 KNHC 082343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 743 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 18.7N 44.3W at 2100 UTC or about 11750 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands or 1070 nm east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows increasing scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center, except 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Paulette will continue on its current motion through tonight before a turn toward the west-northwest or west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Slight additional strengthening is expected tonight and Paulette could be near hurricane strength tonight. Gradual weakening is then expected by late Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.8N 27.9W at 2100 UTC or 230 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands moving westward at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the primary convective band is not presently well-defined, and is broken into a few clusters of strong convection for the time being. Rene will continue on its current motion through tonight, before it accelerates toward the west to west-northwest over the next two or three days. The center of Rene is gradually moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands late this afternoon, and rainfall is expected to gradually end across the islands later tonight. Slow and gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days, with Rene expected to become a hurricane near 20N37W Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 74W-75W south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave has moved into a area of sinking atmospheric motion caused by an upper level low across the northeast Caribbean. This is currently limiting shower and thunderstorm activity over water associated with the wave. However clusters of moderate to strong convection prevail across coastal areas of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis has shifted southward since last night and has detached from Tropical Storm Rene. The trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure across inland Africa near 11N06W and extends to the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and to near 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from the southwest of Tropical Storm Paulette near 10N50W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09.5N between 25W-34W and within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 45W. A strong West African squall line with scattered to numerous strong convection is quickly approaching the west coast of Africa from 08N to 16N. This weather will move over water during the next several hours and produce strong winds with gusts to gale force, torrential rain, and frequent lightning. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening frontal boundary is stationary across the northern Florida Peninsula as high pressure over the Carolinas continues to extend southwestward to over the central Gulf. An upper-level trough is over the eastern Gulf and is acting to enhance late afternoon convection over the Florida peninsula, focused along a surface trough from near just offshore of the Florida Gulf coast near 27N85W south- southwestward to 24N85W and to the northern Yucatan Channel. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm SE of this trough. Elsewhere widely scattered moderate convection dots the waters from offshore of the Yucatan Penninsula to the SE Texas coastal waters. Afternoon altimeter data and buoy observations reveal relatively low seas in the range of 1-3 ft throughout the basin. As for the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate into late part of the week. The eastern Gulf surface trough will move slowly westward through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather weak pressure pattern persists over the area as was shown in the latest pressure analysis. An elongated upper- level low is located over the eastern Caribbean at 15N66W, with a trough extending southwestward to near 13N67W. As mentioned above, sinking motion just west of the low and trough are limiting convection near the central Caribbean tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection, focused by the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is seen from 10N-12N between 75W- 80W. The tropical wave will continue westward through the central Caribbean through Wed, then across the western Caribbean late in week. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate trades throughout the basin. Little change in marine conditions is anticipated through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on both Tropical Storm Paulette and on Tropical Storm Rene. A weakening stationary front is analyzed over northern Florida, and extends northeastward to offshore of the Carolinas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the front. A 1012 mb low pressure area is near 30N71W along a trough axis N of 26N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near the low and extends southward to 25N between 67W-73W. This low pressure system has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours as it drifts westward well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas during the rest of the week. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 26N from across the Bahamas to offshore of the Florida coast. Additional scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 60W-68W. The stationary front off the northeast Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Large swells associated with Paulette will spread into the waters east of the Bahamas by the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate wind flow will prevail across the basin through the week. $$ Stripling