000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 18.4N 43.3W at 08/1500 UTC or about 1120 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands or 1125 nm east of the northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the center, except 30 nm in the SE quadrant. Similar convection denotes and outer rain band from 18N to 21N between 40-43W, and within 30 nm of line from 15N41W to 18N39W. Paulette will continue on its current motion through tonight before a turn toward the west-northwest or west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Moderate additional strengthening is possible today and Paulette could be near hurricane strength by tonight. Gradual weakening is then expected by late Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.5N 26.5W at 08/1500 UTC or 90 nm west-northwest of the Santo Cabo Verde Islands moving westward at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that its convective bands are not presently well-defined for the time being. The imagery depicts scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. An outer broken convective rain band consists of mainly moderate convection and is within 30 nm of a line from 14N27W to 16N29W and to 18N28W. Rene will continue on its current motion through tonight, before it acquires an expected motion toward the west to west-northwest over the next two or three days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will move away from the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Rene is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over the western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. These winds will subside later today. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening Thu. through Fri. Rene is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the wave axis from 11N to 13N. Isolated showers are within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 13N-18N. The earlier scattered moderate to strong convection over northern Colombia has dissipated. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W south of 19N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave shows no signals both at the low and mid-levels in the latest model data. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis has shifted southward since the overnight hours as low pressure associated with a tropical wave develops inland Africa. It is analyzed from a 1009 mb low near 12N04W to the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and to near 06N14W, where it beaks down. It resumes to the southwest of Paulette near 13N47W and to 09N53W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-13N between 43W- 48W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 08W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula as high pressure over the Carolinas continues to stretch southwestward to over the central Gulf. A slow moving westward surface trough is analyzed from near just offshore of the Florida Gulf coast near 27N85W south-southwestward to 24N85W and to the northern Yucatan Channel. An upper-level trough is over the eastern Gulf. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are within 60 to 90 nm of this trough. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms, moving to the northwest, are north of 25N and west of 92W, and also over the far southern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers moving westward are elsewhere east of 90W. Both buoy data and latest scatterometer data depict mainly gentle to moderate east-southeast winds across the basin. Current altimeter data passes and buoys reveal relatively low seas in the range of 1-3 ft throughout the basin. As for the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate into late part of the week. The eastern Gulf surface trough will continue to slowly move westward through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather weak pressure pattern persists over the area as was shown in the latest pressure analysis. An elongated upper- level low is located over the eastern Caribbean at 16N65W, with a trough extending southwestward to near 13N67W. Upper-level ridging exists between this trough and weak upper- level trough over the western Caribbean that extends from western Cuba to 18N84W and to the northeast coast of Honduras. The eastern periphery of upper- level ridging is present west of this trough. Atmospheric instability initiated mainly by the upper-level low near 16N65W has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorm to be north of 16N and east of 64W and to over the Leeward Islands and surrounding waters. Similar activity is over Puerto Rico and waters that include those surrounding the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection aided by the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is seen from 09N to 12N between 76W and 79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 20N and west of 76W. The tropical wave along 71W will continue westward through the central Caribbean through Wed, then across the western Caribbean during late in week. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate trades throughout the basin. Little change in marine conditions is anticipated through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on both Tropical Storm Paulette and on Tropical Storm Rene. A weakening stationary front is analyzed over northern Florida. It extends northeastward to offshore of the Carolinas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the front. A 1012 mb low pressure area is near 30N68W along a trough axis N of 26N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing within 90 nm of the low in the SW quadrant. Similar convection is noted from 25N-28N between 66W-69W. The low pressure has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours as it drifts westward well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas during the rest of the week. Scattered moderate convection is noted From 22N- 26N from across the Bahamas to offshore of the Florida coast. This convection is mainly being triggered by very moist southerly flow that is present to the east of a mid to upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-30N between 55W-60W associated with an upper-level low near 27N59W and related trough that extends from it northwestward to near 32N65W. As for the forecast, the stationary front off the northeast Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail across the basin through the week. $$ Aguirre