000 AXNT20 KNHC 071730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 17.2N 42.2W at 07/1500 UTC or 1194 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-20N between 37W-45W. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster speed is expected during the next several days. Modest additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near 15.7N 21.2W at 07/1500 UTC or 160 nm E of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N-18N between 20W-24W. A westerly motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 65W from 20N southward to the N central coast of Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 05N-10N between 63W-68W. A tropical wave axis is along 77W from the S coast of Cuba to Jamaica to N Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends between the T.D. Eighteen and T.S. Paulette from 15N27W to 16N38W. The monsoon trough resumes W of T.S. Paulette near 13N46W to 10N53W. The ITCZ continues from 10N53W to Trinidad near 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 26W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula. A surface trough is in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure is building across the basin from the Carolinas with mainly gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less across the NE half of the Gulf, and 3-4 ft across the SW half of the Gulf. The trough over the SW Gulf will linger tonight before dissipating. Moderate to fresh SE winds may develop Tue and Wed in the NW Gulf in advance of a cold front that is likely to approach the northern Gulf coast mid to late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across the western Caribbean except moderate easterly winds S of 18N in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft across the basin, except locally 5 ft in the central portion. Tropical Storm Paulette is near 17.2N 42.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Paulette will move to 17.4N 42.5W this evening, 17.9N 43.2W Tue morning, 18.7N 44.4W Tue evening, 19.6N 46.0W Wed morning, 20.3N 48.2W Wed evening, and 20.7N 50.0W Thu morning. Paulette will change little in intensity as it moves well north and east of the Leeward Islands early Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave S of eastern Cuba across Jamaica to Colombia will move across the western Caribbean through Tue and move out of the basin Tue night while a second tropical wave moves from the eastern Caribbean into the central forecast waters. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the basin through the week, occasionally and locally moderate to fresh in the S central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Eighteen. A stationary front extends from 31N80W to the N Florida coast near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1010 mb low is near 30N67W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the SE quadrant. A ridge of high pressure extends from NW to SE through 26N72W with mainly moderate E-SE winds SW of the ridge, and gentle winds NE of the ridge except stronger winds near the low pressure area on the NE side. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from the Central Bahamas westward through the Straits of Florida associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is currently located near South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for much of the week. Tropical Storm Paulette is near 17.2N 42.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Paulette will move to 17.4N 42.5W this evening, 17.9N 43.2W Tue morning, 18.7N 44.4W Tue evening, 19.6N 46.0W Wed morning, 20.3N 48.2W Wed evening, and 20.7N 50.0W Thu morning. Paulette will change little in intensity as it moves well north and east of the Leeward Islands early Fri. Elsewhere, a stationary front off the NE Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Low pressure near 30N67W will drift west through the week north of the Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail across the basin through the week. $$ Formosa