000 AXNT20 KNHC 061803 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-22N moving W 10 kt. A 1007 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 16N39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the low. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 17W from 05N-21N moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis N of 10N. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall is possible there on Monday and Tuesday. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 60W/61W from 19N southward to the coast of NE Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis is along 73W from across Haiti southward to N Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 70W-75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 17N16W to 12N27W to 16N39W to 10N46W to 09N53W. The ITCZ continues from 09N53W to 10N59W. Besides the convection mentioned in the special features section above, widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-16N between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 06/1500 UTC, a dissipating stationary front extends from Daytona Beach Florida to Crystal River Florida to 28N90W to N of Corpus Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from the Texas/Mexico border SE-S offshore of Tampico and Veracruz to near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N-26N between 94W-98W. Winds W of the trough are increasing to fresh to strong, while an area of fresh to strong easterly winds are E of the trough NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to an earlier wind surge. Otherwise, scatterometer data indicates that gentle to moderate easterly flow prevails. The front will fully dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, diminishing early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds and seas will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with fresh to strong winds at a minimum behind it. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection near the tropical wave along 73W, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm W-NW of a line from near the Windward Passage to 13N78W, while scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N-17N between 81W-85W associated with an upper level trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean tonight and move out of the basin Tue night while a second tropical wave moves into the central forecast waters. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail across the central basin through early Mon, then diminish to moderate the remainder forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near 16N39W. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N79W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 28N from the Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas and Cuba. Deep E/SE flow will persist as the TUTT progresses towards South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for much of the week. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 27N65W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Moderate trades prevail S of 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 25N. A trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of the week with low pres possibly developing along it before dissipating by mid-week. High pres will build N-NE of the area by mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing. An area of low pressure, with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, may affect the waters E of 65W by the end of the week. $$ Formosa