000 AXNT20 KNHC 060948 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 548 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low accompanied with a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is near 18.5N38W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-18N between 38W-43W. Earlier scatterometer data showed that this low was located more to the W-SW than previous fixes. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along the coast of Africa near 16W, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N-20N between 13W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 13W-17W. This wave will likely bring heavy rainfall to the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days. A tropical wave axis is near 38W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N-19N between 37W- 39W and from 08N-10N between 37W-43W. A tropical wave axis is near 59W/60W from 19N southward to the coast of Guyana, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis is near 72W/73W from across Haiti southward to near the western Venezuela/Colombia border, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 68W-74W, with additional convection noted over far NW Venezuela and portions of central and western Colombia ahead of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is near 92W from near the Bay of Campeche along the coast of Mexico southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean basin, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 21N in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico with additional activity inland ahead of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the Mauritania/Senegal border at 17N16W to 13N35W to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 28W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-17N between 31W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from just S of Apalachee Bay, Florida to across the northern Gulf along 28N to near Matagorda Bay, Texas. Only isolated showers are noted near the front. A surface trough is analyzed from the Texas/Mexico border SE-S offshore of Tampico and Veracruz to near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted W-SW of the trough including over inland portions of Mexico. Winds W of the trough are increasing to fresh to strong this morning, while an area of fresh to strong easterly winds are E of the trough NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to an earlier wind surge. Otherwise, scatterometer data indicates that gentle to moderate easterly flow prevails. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the E central Gulf from 24N-26N between 85W-88W due to a weak mid- level trough. The front will stall and dissipate through early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, diminishing early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds and seas will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with fresh to strong winds at a minimum behind it. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection near the tropical wave along 70W, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm W-NW of a line from near the Windward Passage to 13N78W, while scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N-17N between 81W-85W associated with a couple of mid to upper level troughs. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean by the early part of the week. The tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean during the early part of the week. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the basin will support moderate trades, locally fresh in the central Caribbean, for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near 18.5N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 27N from the Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas and Cuba. Deep E/SE flow will persist as the TUTT progresses towards South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for much of the week. A 1018 mb high pressure area is analyzed near 30N72W with broad ridging from 28N-31N across the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. A surface trough is noted just E of 65W, from 32N61W to 27N63W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 27N-30N between 58W-65W near the trough axis. Moderate trades prevail S of 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 25N. The trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of the week with low pres possibly developing along it before dissipating by mid-week. High pres will build N-NE of the area by mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing. $$ Lewitsky