465 AXNT20 KNHC 060516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low accompanied with a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is near 18.8N 35.4W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity from 11N-22N between 30W-40W. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 35W from 00N-18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 11N-22N between 30W-40W. A tropical wave axis is near 57W from 00N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave axis is near 70W S of 19N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-19N between 68W-72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 14N34W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N54W. Aside from convection discussed above, scattered moderate isolated convection is noted 400 nm southeast of the monsoon trough east of 23W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to 21N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 28N and W of 93W. Tropical wave along 90W is enhancing scattered moderate convection S of 21N between 95W-90W in the Bay of Campeche. In the northern Gulf, a weak cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure over southern Georgia. The front extends west across Louisiana to NE Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 28N to 24N between 82W-85W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin, except light winds in the vicinity of the trough in the western Gulf and near the cold front in the northern Gulf. The weak front will stall and dissipate Sun through early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds and seas will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with fresh to strong winds at a minimum behind it. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection near the tropical wave along 70W, scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-19N between 74W-81W and scattered showers in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean by the early part of the week. Another tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean during the early part of the week. Otherwise, weak high-pressure N of the basin will support moderate trades, locally fresh in the central Caribbean, for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near 18.8N 35.4W. Broad ridging dominates the open Atlantic waters N of 20N with moderate trades and light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 23N west of 53W. ASCAT data shows surface trough from 34N59W to 26N63W with scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 57W-65W. The weak ridge along 30N will dissipate tonight. A trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of the week before dissipating by mid-week. High pressure will build N-NE of the area by mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing. An area of low pressure, with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, may affect the waters E of 65W by the end of the week. $$ MTorres