000 AXNT20 KNHC 050547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Omar, at 05/0300 UTC, is near 35.6N 57.3W. OMAR is moving ENE, 070 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Surface to low level low pressure extends away from the circulation that is around OMAR, toward 30N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N to 31N between 53W and 70W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 16N27W. A tropical wave is along 29W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 540 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Gradual development of this weather feature is expected as it moves westward to west-northwestward. It is likely that a tropical depression may form late this weekend, or early next week, when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N39W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean within 480 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. It is possible that some slow development may occur during the next couple of days, before it merges or interacts with the current 29W tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 52W/53W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 18N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the waters from 20N southward, between the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea and 70W. The wave is moving toward an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is accompanying the upper level SE Cuba trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave passes through parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and parts of Central America from 10N to 17N between the tropical central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua and the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, elsewhere, from 16N to the Yucatan Channel between the tropical wave and 90W. The monsoon trough is along 12N/13N, from 72W in the Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia, through Nicaragua, beyond 90W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of SE Cuba, toward E Honduras/NE Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 11N30W, through the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 11N39W, to 09N51W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N to 18N from 25W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from SW Alabama to Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to South Texas about halfway between Corpus Christi and Laredo. A second surface trough is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico, within 70 nm of the coast of Mexico from the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas. The 1008 mb low pressure center of remnant low of NANA is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the WSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 21N in the Gulf of Mexico between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 87W and 89W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 225 nm of the coast of Texas and Mexico, from 24N to 29N from 92W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward. A SE U.S.A. ridge will dissipate by tonight, in advance of a weak front moving into the far N Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The front will stall there, in the far N Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then dissipate by Monday. It is possible that a strong cold front may reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Saturday night, and then continue as moderate to fresh thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 18N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the waters from 20N southward, between the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea and 70W. The wave is moving toward an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is accompanying the upper level SE Cuba trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave passes through parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and parts of Central America from 10N to 17N between the tropical central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua and the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, elsewhere, from 16N to the Yucatan Channel between the tropical wave and 90W. The monsoon trough is along 12N/13N, from 72W in the Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia, through Nicaragua, beyond 90W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of SE Cuba, toward E Honduras/NE Nicaragua. The Bermuda High, to the north of the Caribbean Sea, will contribute to fresh-to-strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through Saturday. An active tropical wave, currently in the E Caribbean Sea, will cause scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, as it moves across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. The trade winds will diminish basin-wide, by the end of the weekend into early next week, as the Bermuda High that is to the north of the area weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow is related to the SE Cuba upper level cyclonic circulation center, and the inverted trough that extends northeastward from the cyclonic center. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from 60W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area that is from 20N to 27N from 60W westward. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N74W. The Bermuda High, and a ridge extending along 28N, support moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 25N. The ridge will build again, well to the northeast of these waters early next week. Expect mainly moderate E-SE winds basin-wide early next week. $$ mt