000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 35.2N 57.8W at 04/1500 UTC or 390 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are within 150 nm SE quadrant of Omar's center. Slow weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Omar could become a remnant low at any time today and is expected to dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtmlfor more details. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 08N to 18N with axis near 25W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1011 mb low is near 13N25W associated with the wave. Scattered moderate convection is is within 360 nm NW semicircle of the low. Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward to west- northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance this system may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 07N to 18N with axis near 49W, moving W at 10 kt. There is no convection associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 18N with axis near 63W, moving W at moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated tstms are from 13N to 15N between 62W and 65W. A tropical wave axis is in the western Caribbean extending S of 19N with axis near 86W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and tstms are S of 22N W of 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 13N25W to 11N33W to 10N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 19N E of 20W and from 06N to 13N between 29W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails over the north-central and NE Gulf this morning with variable light to gentle winds E of 90W. Over the western half of the basin, a surface trough extends from 26N southward to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered heavy showers and tstms associated with the trough are S of 27N and W of 91W. Latest sactterometer data show moderate to fresh ENE winds in the vicinity of the trough as well. High pres over the NE Gulf will dissipate today ahead of a weak front moving into the far northern Gulf Sat. The front will stall over the far northern Gulf through Sun, then slowly dissipate through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... There are two tropical waves in the Caribbean, one over the western basin and a second one just W of the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for further details. In the central Caribbean, diffluent flow to the east of a middle to upper level inverted trough supports an area of heavy showers between 66W and 74W, which is affecting Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and portions of western Puerto Rico. This convection will shift westward and is expected to dissipate near the Windward Passage early on Sat. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the SW basin being supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere through Sat. Trades will diminish basin-wide by the end of the weekend into early next week as high pres N-NE of the area weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominate the Atlc subtropical waters today with mainly fair weather, except for an area of scattered showers N of 27N between 53W and 69W. The ridge extending along 29N supports moderate to locally fresh trades S of 25N and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 25N. A weak cold front may settle S of 31N this weekend weakening the ridge before stalling and dissipating. New high pressure N-NE area will support mainly moderate E-SE flow basin-wide early next week. $$ Ramos