000 AXNT20 KNHC 040927 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 527 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 35.3N 58.5W at 04/0900 UTC or 360 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The center of Omar remains exposed with any associated convection confined to the SE quadrant where scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm. Omar is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtmlfor more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 25W from 01N-18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-14N between 24W-26W and from 15N-17N between 25W-29W. Development of this system is expected to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development. A tropical wave axis is along 30W/31W from 02N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-14N between 27W-30W. A tropical wave axis is along 48W/49W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave axis is along 61W/62W from 20N southward across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 60W-63W. A tropical wave axis is along 82W/83W from 19N southward to near the Panama/Costa Rica border, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-17N between 80W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 12N26W to low pressure near 12N37W to 13N50W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 13N50W to near Barbados at 13N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-12N between 17W-20W, and from 06N-11N between 25W-43W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border across the SW Caribbean Sea to northern Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 78W-80W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure was noted by overnight scatterometer data near 29N84W with a ridge axis extending W-NW to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scatterometer data also indicated a trough W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula from near 25N91W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm W-NW of the trough. A surge of fresh to strong winds was accompanying the trough, recently having diminished to moderate to fresh. Mainly moderate E-SE flow was noted elsewhere across the basin, except fresh in the SE Gulf through the Straits of Florida, and light and variable winds near the high center. The high pressure center over the NE Gulf will dissipate today ahead of a weak front moving into the far northern Gulf Sat. The front will stall over the far northern Gulf through Sun, then slowly dissipate through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is centered over Hispaniola, with a mid-level trough evident along 72W/73W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-16N between 69W-78W. Additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over western Venezuela and Lake Maracaibo as well as portions of northern Colombia. Very heavy rainfall yesterday and overnight may support localized flash flooding as long as the convection persists. Refer to products issued by your local weather service office. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trades across much of the basin, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean later this morning through Sat, with moderate to fresh trades continuing elsewhere. Trades will diminish basin-wide by the end of the weekend into early next week as high pres N-NE of the area weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Nearly stationary 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N37W, several hundred nm W-SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Deep convection has developed near the low in the past few hours, with scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 11N-13N between 37W-42W. Gradual development of this low is possible early next week once the tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands passes to the N of the system on Sun. A broad ridge was noted in earlier scatterometer data from 27N-30N between 55W-77W with light and variable winds in this zone. Moderate to fresh trades were noted from 20N-27N, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A trough was analyzed from 33N53W to 30N60W with scattered showers in the vicinity. A weak cold front may settle S of 31N this weekend weakening the ridge before stalling and dissipating. New high pressure N-NE area will support mainly moderate E-SE flow basin-wide early next week. $$ Lewitsky