000 AXNT20 KNHC 021635 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nana is centered near 17.1N 84.6W at 02/1500 UTC or 130 nm ENE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle and 150 nm in the SW semicircle of the storm. Nana will intensify to hurricane strength late tonight before making landfall in Belize. It will then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression during the day Thu, inland over Belize and Guatemala. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Omar is centered near 36.2N 67.4W at 02/1500 UTC or 270 nm NNW of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Omar continues to experience significant NW shear, with scattered moderate convection displaced well SE, within 180 nm, of the center. Omar is expected to continue moving E Thu, while gradually weakening to a Tropical Depression. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this afternoon along 19W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 09N to 12N E of 20W. This wave is expected to merge with a disturbance centered a couple hundred miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands by Thu night. Gradually development of this system is then possible, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves west through the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. It has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance over the next 5 days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11N between 25W and 36W. Weak low pressure developing in association with this low has some potential for tropical development as it meanders over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic ocean. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward, moving W 10 knots. No significant convection is observed. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 17N southward, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed behind this wave from 11N to 13N between 55W and 59W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 68W and 72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 12N47W. The intertropical convergence zone continues to 12N60W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical waves section, Scattered moderate convection is evident form 12N to 14N between 36W an 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through central Florida, to a 1017 mb high pressure center that is near 28N85W. The ridge continues southwestward, to the coast of Mexico along 20N. High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf through tonight. The high pressure will lift north of the area later in the week ahead of a trough entering the eastern Gulf. The trough will dissipate over the central Gulf by Fri. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall over the northern Gulf Sat and dissipate through late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about T.S. Nana. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted south of Cuba, with to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere north of 15N with light breezes south of 15N. Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the central Caribbean through Sun with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak trough has become ill-defined and dissipated over the NW Bahamas this afternoon. A ridge is oriented along 28N. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted south of 22N, with moderate SE winds off northeast Florida. Light breezes are noted in between along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters outside of the Bahamas. A ridge extending from the central Atlantic to near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas is lifting northward ahead of a westward moving trough entering the southern Bahamas. The trough will move west of the area tonight into Thu, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight into Thu morning. The ridge will remain along 29N Thu and Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. Farther east, broad ridging north of 20N is supporting moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over most of the eastern Atlantic. $$ KONARIK