000 AXNT20 KNHC 010537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 33.2N 75.7W at 01/0300 UTC, or 122 nm S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the E semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A broad area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave along 74W over the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 72W and 77W. This system has changed little in organization since yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation with this system during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 27W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 22W and 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 38W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 34W and 43W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 14N between 46W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N24W to 12N33W to 10N45W to 11N51W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 12W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, with 1017 mb high pressure analyzed near 26N84W. Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf, N Florida and central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail across the waters W of 90W, with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds are across the eastern Gulf with seas ranging from 2-4 ft. High pressure will dominate Gulf waters through mid week then lift north ahead of a trough approaching from the east. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information regarding the potential for tropical cyclone development over the central Caribbean Sea. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean between the low/tropical wave and Hispaniola, where seas likely peak around 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the western Caribbean, with scattered showers over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea between Colombia and Haiti is moving quickly west and will cross the western Caribbean through the week. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for tropical development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through early Tue. Overall, moderate trade winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen. A subtropical ridge axis extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 34N46W westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough that extends from 22N63W to 17N64W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades persist over the central Atlantic, with 5-7 ft seas based on earlier altimeter passes. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure oriented along 28N will dominate through late in the week. A westward moving surface trough, accompanied by fresh trades, will reach along 70W Tue, 75W Wed, and 80W Thu. $$ Formosa