000 AXNT20 KNHC 312230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 32.6N 76.5W at 31/2100 UTC, or 170 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A broad area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave along 72W over the central Caribbean Sea. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 71W and 74W. This system has changed little in organization since yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation with this system during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N within 120 nm of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 37W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N to 13N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 13N23W to 11N41W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 20W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, with 1016 mb high pressure analyzed near 25N85W. Convective activity across the NE Gulf has diminished, although some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is noted in radar imagery offshore of the Tampa Bay region. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail across the waters W of 90W, with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds are found across the eastern Gulf with seas ranging from 2-4 ft. High pressure will dominate Gulf waters through much of the week. With its center over the eastern Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly winds can be expected over the western Gulf into late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information regarding the potential for tropical cyclone development over the central Caribbean Sea. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean between the low/tropical wave and Hispaniola, where seas likely peak around 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the western Caribbean, with isolated thunderstorms noted south of western Cuba. Low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea N of Colombia is moving quickly west and will cross the western Caribbean through the week. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for tropical development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through early Tue. Overall, moderate trade winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen. A subtropical ridge axis extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 34N46W westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough that extends from 25N64W to 17N61W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades persist over the central Atlantic, with 5-7 ft seas based on earlier altimeter passes. High pressure oriented along 28N will dominate this week. A westward moving surface trough, accompanied by fresh trades, will reach along 70W Tue, 75W Wed, and 80W Thu. $$ B Reinhart