000 AXNT20 KNHC 311705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES. An area of low pressure is located about 150 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This system has become better organized overnight, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a day or so while the system moves northeastward, near but offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States, and then away from land. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon if necessary. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. A 1008 mb low is located in the central Caribbean Sea near 14N70W with a tropical wave along an axis of 70W southward of 21N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low and wave from 12N-18N between 68W-74W. This area of low pressure has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15-20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 25W from 15N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave and monsoon trough within 100 nm of the wave from 07N-14N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 35W from 18N southward and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the wave from 07N-10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 18N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave from 07N-15N between 48W-51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 12N27W to 13N41W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-15N between 16W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are moving eastward across the NE Gulf, N of 27N and W of 29W. Otherwise, quiet conditions prevail across the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are observed with 3-5 ft seas. High pressure will dominate Gulf waters through much of the week. With its center over the eastern Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly winds can be expected over the western Gulf into late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special feature section above for information regarding the low and tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the SE Caribbean, S of 15N between 61W-67W. Showers are also noted in the Windward Passage. There is no significant convection in the western Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are observed through most of the Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds along and south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Seas are 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft near the tropical wave. Low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea N of western Venezuela is moving quickly west and will cross the western Caribbean through the week. Environmental conditions are favorable for tropical development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through Tue. High pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras through late today. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above about developing low pressure off northeast Florida. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the western Atlantic south of the low off the coasts of the Carolinas mentioned in the Special Features section, from N of 27N between 74W-79W. Isolated thunderstorms are also moving off the NE Florida coast. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N43W. A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic from 30N30W to 24N28W with no significant convection associated with it. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin, with moderate to fresh W and S winds south of the low off the Carolinas. Seas are 3-5 ft in the western Atlantic with 5-7 ft in the central Atlantic. Low pressure that off the SE U.S. coast has moved N of the region and is not expected to impact the area. A ridge along roughly 26N will lift north tonight ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters south of 25N through mid week. The ridge will persist along roughly 29N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola later in the week. $$ AReinhart