000 AXNT20 KNHC 311033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES. Satellite and radar images indicate that an area of low pressure is developing a couple of hundred miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along 68W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 14N69W at 0900 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves westward. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 20W-25W. A tropical wave extends from 07N-17N with axis along 33W, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 31W-33W. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 48W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 43W-48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 12N30W to 14N52W. Aside from the convection listed in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 50W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging continue to dominate the Gulf waters along roughly 26N. This is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. No significant convection is evident across the Gulf at this time. Little change is expected as the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, with a high pressure center possibly forming over the southeast Gulf later today. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W. See the special feature section above. In addition, a surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through Tue. High pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras late today. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above about developing low pressure off northeast Florida. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N43W toward the northern Bahamas. A surface trough is along 58W from 16N to 22N. The ridge part of the ridge west of 60W will lift northward through tonight, as the trough moves westward, passing through the Bahamas and into Florida through mid week. The ridge will remain oriented along roughly 29N through late week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage Thu and Fri. Farther east, a band of moderate to fresh trade winds persist between 15N and 25N, roughly between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave area farther south. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this zone. Lighter winds and seas persist elsewhere except for fresh to strong NE winds off northwest Africa. $$ Christensen