000 AXNT20 KNHC 310518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 516 UTC Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES. Satellite and radar images indicate that an area of low pressure is developing a couple of hundred miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along 65W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 12N65W at 0000 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves westward. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 22W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N E of 25W. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 32W, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 05N-18N with axis along 47W, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 42W-55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 13N30W to 13N52W. The ITCZ begins near 13N48W and continues to 13N58W. For information on convection, see the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging continue to dominate the Gulf waters along with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the western half of the basin. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluence continue to support scattered showers and tstms over the eastern Gulf E of 88W. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, with a high pressure center forming over the southeast Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 65W. See the special feature section above. In addition, a surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north of the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, associated with middle to upper level diffluent flow. A surface trough is NE of the Leeward Islands from 24N58W to 17N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N40W producing mostly fair weather. Over the western Atlantic, a ridge along roughly 25N will lift north tonight ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters south of 25N Mon through mid week. An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States Mon or Tue. This system may briefly increase winds north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida. $$ Formosa