000 AXNT20 KNHC 302356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 64W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 13N64W at 2100 UTC. This system is generating scattered showers and tstms S of 19N between 58W and 71W. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves westward across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 21W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15N E of 25W. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 31W, moving W at 10 kt. There is no deep convection associated with the wave as this time. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 45W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-15N between 41W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N31W to 13N47W. The ITCZ begins near 13N48W and continues to 13N58W. For information on convection, see the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging continue to domainte the Gulf waters along with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the western half of the basin. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluence continue to support scattered showers and tstms over the north- central and northeast gulf. Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, with a high pressure center forming over the southeast Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 64W. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves across the central Caribbean Sea. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night, and off Colombia into early Mon. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north of the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, associated with middle to upper level diffluent flow. A ridge along roughly 25N will lift north tonight ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters south of 25N Mon through mid week. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. This system may briefly increase winds across the north-central waters. $$ Ramos