000 AXNT20 KNHC 301757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure is expected to form off the Georgia coast tonight or Monday. Subsequent development is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward to off Cape Hatteras, and then east-northeastward, away from land. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from 06N-20N with axis along 62W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 11.5N-16.5N. Rains over the Windward and southern Leeward Islands will diminish later this afternoon as the tropical wave moves west of the area into the eastern Caribbean. These showers and tstorms are beginning to show signs of organization. A recent ASCAT pass indicates that a broad low pressure has formed in association with the wave. A tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the system moves W across the Caribbean Sea. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system will produce gusty winds along with scattered to numerous showers and tstorms as it moves W. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this disturbance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 20W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm W and 180 nm E of the wave axis from 10N-14N. Additional showers are seen from 04N-09N between 14W-23W. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 30W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near and within 270 nm W of the wave axis from 08N-15N. Further development is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves slowly west, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends from 05N-18N with axis along 43/44W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 330 nm W and 75 nm E of the wave axis from 06.5N-15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 13N32W to 12N40W. The ITCZ begins near 13N46W and continues to 13N58W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the ITCZ from 07N-13N between 54W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough axis currently extends from western South Carolina to the NW Gulf of Mexico. The latest TPW imagery shows moist conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico on the east side of the upper trough axis. As a result of the moisture, instability, and sea breeze convergence, scattered to numerous moderate showers and thunderstorms are near the U.S. northern Gulf Coast from 27N-31N between 82W-94W. Most of this activity is north of 28.5N. Elsewhere, a surface ridge axis extends from the W Atlantic into the SE Gulf along 24N, leading to fair weather and gentle anticyclonic winds. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, with a high pressure center forming over the southeast Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is described above in the special features section. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers south of 12.5N between 75W-83W. Elsewhere, subsidence and dry air cover the remainder of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across the central and W Caribbean, although light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Fresh trades are in the western Gulf of Honduras. A strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move across the entire basin through mid week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will accompany the wave. The wave has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night, and off Colombia into early Mon. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north of the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, from 27N-34N between 68W-78W, related to upper level diffluent flow east of an approaching upper-level trough over the SE U.S. Fresh SW to W winds are noted north of 29.5N between 65W-82W, including in the offshore waters off northeast Florida. These winds will persist through much of today ahead of a trough moving off the Georgia coast. Even though low pressure is expected to form in association with the trough tonight or Monday north of the area, winds south of 31N will diminish overnight as the trough or low moves NE. The low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Farther south, a ridge axis extends from the southern tip of Florida near 25N80W to 25N70W to 30N55W to a 1025 mb high near 34N40W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are within a couple hundred nm either side of the ridge axis. A westward moving surface trough is along 54W from 18N-26N. Isolated showers accompany the trough. As the trough moves westward across the waters south of 25N through mid week, the ridge axis will lift north. Elsewhere, fresh trades cover much of the Atlantic from 18N-28N, east of 55W. Strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands northward over the far NE Atlantic, east of 18W. $$ Hagen