000 AXNT20 KNHC 301030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure is expected to develop off the Georgia and Carolina coasts tonight. This is near the Gulf Stream, and there is a medium chance for this low to deepen into a tropical depression as the low moves northeastward to off Cape Hatteras through late Tue. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 18W, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 16W-18W. A tropical wave extends from 05N-07N with axis along 29W, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis at this time. This system is expected to move slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave extends from 06N-18N with axis along 42W, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis at this time. A tropical wave is approaching Barbados, extending from 07N to 20N with axis along 58W/59W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis in the eastern Caribbean, from 12N-16N between 61W-63W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward over the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 13N35W to 12N40W. The intertropical convergence zone begins near 11N43W and continues to 13N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted well south of the ITCZ from 07N-10N between 45W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer and buoy data show fresh to strong SW winds off the Florida Panhandle have diminished significantly as high pressure continues to build into the the Gulf along roughly 25N/26N. Fresh SE to S winds are likely ongoing over the south central Gulf, between the ridge and lower pressure related to tropical waves moving through southern Mexico. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the southeast Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the mouth of the Mississippi River, ahead of an upper trough extending over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers are also noted over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the north central Gulf will persist through the early part of the week, with high pressure forming over the southeast Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras this morning, as high pressure builds over the northeastern Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave now moving through northern Central America. These winds will diminish through the morning as the tropical wave continues westward. Similarly, the high pressure is supporting fresh trade winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted over the Leeward Islands and into the northeast Caribbean, ahead of a tropical wave near Barbados approaching the basin from the east. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the areas of fresh to strong winds, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere except 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Caribbean. Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching from over the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms off eastern Panama. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis in the eastern Caribbean, from 12N- 16N between 61W-63W. The tropical wave near Barbados will move into the eastern Caribbean today, then move across the entire basin through mid week. A trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. Another tropical wave will pass west of 55W by late Wed, and approach the eastern Caribbean by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms are active north of the northern Bahamas and east of northeast Florida near 30N75W, related to upper level diffluent flow along a weak frontal boundary north of the area, with some influence from the nearby Gulf Stream. Fresh SW winds are noted in the offshore waters off northeast Florida this morning, and will persist through much of today ahead of a trough moving off the Carolina coast. Even though low pressure may form farther north, these winds will diminish overnight as the trough or low moves farther to the north. Farther south, a ridge is oriented east-west along along rough 25N/26N west of 65W. This is an extension of a ridge attached to 1022 mb high pressure southwest of the Azores near 34N36W. Buoys show seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters between 65W and the Bahamas. Farther east, a trough is near 48W from 18N-27N. For the forecast, the ridge along roughly 25N will lift north tonight ahead of the trough as it moves westward across the waters south of 25N Mon through mid week. Fresh NE winds are possible ahead of the trough. Farther east, gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted in the area of the ridge north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 8 ft seas farther south. Strong to near gale force winds are noted off northwest Africa. Meteo France allowed gale warnings for Agadir off Morocco to expire. $$ Christensen