000 AXNT20 KNHC 300542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis along 17W, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N E of 22W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis along 28W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 27W and 31W. This system is expected to move slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis along 41W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 39W and 43W. A tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands extending from 07N to 20N with axis along 58W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N between 58W and 62W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward over the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 19N with axis along 86W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over W Honduras and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N30W to 12N44W. The ITCZ begins near 12N44W and continues to 12N56W. besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico due to upper level diffluence east of and upper level trough. A surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the north central Gulf will persist through early next week. A weak surface trough over the west central Gulf will form tonight. Fresh S to SW winds will persist over the south central Gulf through late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N due to the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough. Similar convection is over the SE Caribbean S of 17N due to a tropical wave. Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night in the wake of a tropical wave moving through the area. A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean through Sun, and across the Caribbean through mid week. A trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas due to upper level diffluence. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 27N45W to 17N47W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the trough axis. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 34N36W. Fresh to strong SW winds are possible overnight off northeast Florida ahead of a trough moving through the Carolina and Georgia coasts. A ridge along roughly 25N will lift north Sun night ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters south of 25N Mon through mid week. $$ Formosa