000 AXNT20 KNHC 291029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France has issued a gale warning for Agadir, off the coast of Morocco. For more information see http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean along the Cabo Verde Islands near 23W/24W from 06N-23N, moving W 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. The wave will move very slowly for the next several days. Although conditions are not favorable for development over the next couple of days, there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic, with axis near 40W from 05N-23N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between 35-45W near the monsoon trough. A tropical wave axis is over the eastern Atlantic near 56W south of 18N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident from 13-15N between 53-55W. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles and it has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean near 84W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the central coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania at 19N16W to 12N30W to 14N30W to 07N58W at the coast of Guyana. The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W across Panama, Costa Rica and NW to Nicaragua and El Salvador then west into the eastern Pacific. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves noted above, scattered convection exists south of the monsoon along the coast of Guinea-Bissau. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends westward along roughly 25N from 1018 mb high pressure near 25N71W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and the northern portion of the trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough extends from 23N88W to 19N91W. Fresh SSE flow spreading from the Yucatan Channel into the south central Gulf is producing low level convergence and scattered showers over the central Gulf of Mexico. The ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the north central Gulf will persist through early next week. The weak trough will move from off the Yucatan peninsula across the west central Gulf through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly flow over the central Gulf will increase to fresh to strong over the north- central and northeast basin between the trough and the ridge. The trough will dissipate Sun, allowing moderate to fresh southerly flow will resume for the western half of the Gulf and prevail through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwest to the east Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric conditions across the region. The interactions between the tropical wave near 84W and the ridge to the north of the Caribbean are modulating the trade wind flow over the basin. Fresh NE winds are noted ahead of the tropical wave from the Gulf of Honduras across the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh locally strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean north of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, with up to 8 ft in south central Caribbean. Trade wind convergence into the active monsoon trough is supporting a line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Colombia to central Nicaragua. The fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night in the wake of a tropical wave moving through that area today. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late today and move west of the basin by late Mon or Tue. A third tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Mon and the central Caribbean Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak ridge extends east to west from 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N71W. A 1022 mb high pressure is just southwest of the Azores near 34N35W with a ridge reaching southwestward through 26N50W. In addition to the gales off Agadir, moderate to fresh and locally strong northeast winds are noted across the Canary Islands due to strong pressure gradient in the region. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen across the Atlantic generally south of 21-22N. Stable Saharan air generally dominates the tropical Atlantic north of 15N to the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge extending along roughly 25N will persist across the western Atlantic into early next week. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat night, then stall and weaken N of 28N early on Mon before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 30N. A tropical wave will support moderate to occasionally fresh winds over the waters N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Mon night through Wed. $$ Christensen