000 AXNT20 KNHC 282342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2306 UTC Fri Aug 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis near 31W from 07N-23N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An associated northern vorticity center north of 15N and along 32-33W is moving faster than the rest of the wave axis and providing a NW to SE tilt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 28-40W. Although conditions are not favorable for development over the next couple of days, there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. A strong tropical wave axis is over the central Atlantic near 48W from 06N-16N is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 07N-15N between 48W-55W. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward at about 15 kt toward the Lesser Antilles and it has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean near 81W from 05N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-13N between 80W-84W. A tropical wave reaches along roughly 96W from the central Bay of Campeche into the eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Gulf of Mexico from 19N-22W between 90W-93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania at 20N16W to 13N33W to 06N51W at the coast of Suriname. The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 11N84W over Nicaragua then to the eastern Pacific. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves noted earlier, scattered convection exists from 05N-11N east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Laura was located over Kentucky near 37.2N 88.9W at 2100 UTC, moving ENE or 77 degrees at 21 mph. See the latest advisory issued on Laura by the Weather Prediction Center. A ridge extends westward along roughly 25N from 1019 mb high pressure near 26N66W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and the northern portion of the tropical wave moving across the southwest Gulf. Fresh SSE flow spreading from the Yucatan Channel into the south central Gulf is producing low level convergence and scattered moderate convection from 24N-28W between 90W and the W coast of FL. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist over the central and western Gulf through tonight, increasing to fresh to strong over the north-central and northeast basin Sat as a surface trough develops tightening the pressure against the ridge. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will resume for the western half of the Gulf Sun and prevail through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwest to the east Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric conditions east of 70W. The interactions between the tropical wave near 81W and the ridge to the north of the Caribbean are modulating the trade wind flow over the basin. Fresh SE winds are noted ahead of the tropical wave from the Gulf of Honduras across the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades are noted between 68W and 80W supported by the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, with up to 8 ft in south central Caribbean. Convection described above is active off eastern Panama close to the monsoon trough. Fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. A tropical wave over near 81W will move across the western Caribbean through Sat night. A second tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Sat, followed by a third tropical wave likely reaching the eastern Caribbean on Mon. Fresh to strong winds associated with the third tropical wave will affect the waters NE of Puerto Rico Sun night and Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 26N66W and extends a weak broad ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A 1024 mb high pressure is just southwest of the Azores near 35N30W with a ridge reaching southwestward through 30N45W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are seen across the Atlantic generally south of 21-22N. Stable Saharan Air generally dominates the tropical Atlantic north of 14N to the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure ridge extending along roughly 25N will persist across the western Atlantic into early next week. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat night, then stall and weaken N of 28N early on Mon before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 30N. Otherwise, a tropical wave will support moderate to fresh winds over the waters N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Mon night through Wed. $$ Landsea