000 AXNT20 KNHC 272250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 33.4N 92.8W at 27/2100 UTC or 70 nm NE of Shreveport Louisiana moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. With Laura having weakened to a tropical storm this afternoon and continuing to move northward through Arkansas, the only remaining impacts over Gulf waters off Louisiana are some strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Conditions should improve further overnight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa this afternoon and now has an axis along 24W. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt and is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. To the north and west, an associated northern vorticity trough is analyzed from 25N27W to 14N25W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-18N between 15W-25W. Although conditions are not favorable for development over the next couple of days, they are forecast to become more conducive over the weekend and into early next week as this wave moves into the central and later western tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. A strong tropical wave axis is along 46W from 02N-17N with 1010 mb low pressure along it near 12N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N-13N between 38W- 49W. A tropical wave axis is along 68W from the Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave previously in the far western Caribbean is moving across Central America and into the eastern Pacific along 89W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-21N between 83W- 89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania to the coast of Senegal near 15N16W to 12N30W to low pressure near 12N42W to 09N57W. The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua to Colombia. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-09N between 49W-56W. Scattered moderate convection is also lingering in the Caribbean Sea from 15N to 20N between 77W-83W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features for information on Tropical Storm Laura. A trough associated with Laura is located over the far NW Gulf offshore the Texas coast, producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from near 30N91W to 26N96W. Another trough over the Bay of Campeche extending to offshore Tampico, Mexico, is not producing any convection this evening. An Atlantic ridge axis reaches into the area from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico in the wake of Laura. High pressure will build over the eastern Gulf through this weekend, resulting in moderate to fresh southerly flow across the waters W of 90W through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is analyzed N-NE of the basin, while the monsoon trough extends from the east Pacific across the SW Caribbean Sea, displaced more poleward than is typical. Other than the convection mentioned in the sections above, fair skies cover the remainder of the basin. Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next several nights in the Gulf of Honduras region. A tropical wave along 68W will move across the central and western Caribbean through Sat night, accompanied by a modest increase in winds and seas. Another strong tropical wave will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sun and move into the eastern Caribbean early next week. There is a low chance of gradual tropical development of this system over the next 5 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front continues to reside along 32N from near Charleston, South Carolina to Bermuda. A pre-frontal trough extends from 32N55W to 28N64W to 31N76W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120-180 nm on either side of the trough. A 1019 mb high pressure center is located near 29N74W to the NE of the Bahamas, with another of 1020 mb located well N-NE of Puerto Rico near 25N64W. A 1025 mb high pressure is near the Azores at 36N29W with a ridge reaching SW through 32N33W to 26N50W. Overall, the high pressure will remain in place while the stationary front and associated trough gradually dissipate into the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or just north of 31N early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N. A strong tropical wave will increase winds and seas over the waters E of 65W Sun into early next week. $$ KONARIK