000 AXNT20 KNHC 271636 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Laura is centered near 31.9N 93.1W at 27/1500 UTC or 50 nm NW of Alexandria Louisiana moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Winds of tropical storm force or greater have diminished over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, while outer fresh to strong winds and lingering large seas remain over the N central Gulf, expected to diminish and subside by this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has likely emerged from the west coast of Africa near 20W, however additional satellite data and observations are needed before concluding such. Regardless, an associated northern vort trough is analyzed from 25N27W to 14N25W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-20N between 15W-25W. A tropical wave axis is along 42W from 02N-17N with 1010 mb low pressure along it near 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N between 40W-52W and elsewhere from 09N-14N between 37W-43W. A tropical wave axis is along 65W/66W from near the Mona Passage to across the eastern Caribbean Sea to central Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis, with isolated showers possible. A tropical wave axis is along 87W from near/along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to across the Gulf of Honduras southward across central Honduras into the east Pacific Ocean near the Gulf of Fonseca, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N-20N between 83W-87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania to the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 12N24W to 11N28W to low pressure near 12N42W to 08N50W to 09N55W. The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends into the area from near the Honduras/Nicaragua border to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between 26W-35W, from 07N-09N between 52W-55W, and in the Caribbean Sea from 15N to 20N between 77W-83W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features for information on Hurricane Laura. A couple of outer troughs associated with the overall circulation of Laura are noted over the Gulf of Mexico. An eastern trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 27N88W with scattered showers in the vicinity. Another trough extends from S central Louisiana near 30N92W to 27N95W with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted N of 27N and W of 89W. These troughs will likely continue to rotate across the northern Gulf until Laura moves more N-NE of the area with the potential for lingering convection until that occurs. An Atlantic ridge axis reaches into the area from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico in the wake of Laura. The ridge will continue to build across the basin this weekend, resulting in moderate to fresh southerly flow across the waters W of 90W through early next week, and gentle to moderate flow elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is analyzed N-NE of the basin, while the monsoon trough extends from the east Pacific across the SW Caribbean Sea, displaced more poleward than is typical. Other than the convection mentioned in the sections above, fair skies cover the remainder of the basin. Fresh trade winds will persist over the S central Caribbean for the next several days as an Atlantic high pressure ridge shifts southward. The eastern Caribbean tropical wave will move across the rest of the Caribbean through late Sat, accompanied by a modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will cross the Tropical N Atlantic waters late Fri and Fri night, then pass over the Caribbean Sat through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 32N from just S of Bermuda to near Charleston, South Carolina. A pre-frontal trough extends from 32N53W to 29N60W to 31N70W to 31N77W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120-180 nm on either side of the trough. A pair of 1020 mb high pressure areas are analyzed, one NE of the Bahamas near 29N73W and the other well N-NE of Puerto Rico near 25N64W. A 1025 mb high pressure is near the Azores at 36N33W with a ridge reaching SW through 32N33W to 26N50W. The high pressure across the northern waters will gradually shift southward into the upcoming weekend, while the front near/along 32N stalls out and dissipates. Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or just north of 31N early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N. A tropical wave is expected to increase winds and seas over the waters E of 65W Sun into early next week. $$ Lewitsky