000 AXNT20 KNHC 271034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Laura is centered near 30.5N 93.4W at 27/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Lake Charles Louisiana moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Winds to tropical storm force are possible for the remainder of the overnight hours off the coast of southwest Louisiana, with seas up to 22 ft. Winds and seas will diminish rapidly over coastal waters as the storm heads inland and weakens. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ..TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 38W and 47W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 19N southward through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, as well as eastern Costa Rica, moving west at 10 to 15 knots.The monsoon trough intersects the tropical wave over central Nicaragua. Scattered showers are noted along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Mauritania, to 12N37W. The monsoon trough also extends from northeast Colombia to central Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 15N to 18N between 17W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 11N between 25W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features for information on Hurricane Laura. Seas in excess of 8 ft are still evident over much of the northwest Gulf in a mix of swell, although overall wave heights will be subsiding as Laura continues to move inland and weaken. Seas will have subsided to 5 to 7 ft off Louisiana by early evening, and will be 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A ridge will build westward from the western Atlantic, across Florida into the eastern Gulf. For the next couple of days, moderate to fresh SE winds are possible over the south central Gulf due in part to an interaction between the ridge and a weak trough moving from the northwest Caribbean through the west central Gulf, enhancing local troughing in the process. Beyond that period, the ridge alone will be the main influence, supporting generally light to gentle breezes and modest seas over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are likely over the Gulf of Honduras this morning as high pressure northeast of the area builds in the wake of the tropical wave moving into Central America. Seas are reaching as high as six feet this morning in the western Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the south central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas area noted. An upper low west of Jamaica is supporting a few showers near Grand Cayman. Isolated trade winds showers are noted in regional radar mainly in form of weak streamers downwind of the Windward Islands, near a tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, persistent high pressure north of the area will support the fresh trade winds over the south- central Caribbean for the next several days as an Atlantic high pressure ridge shifts southward. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands will move across the Caribbean Thu through late Sat, accompanied by a modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will enter the Caribbean waters by Sat, and move across the Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from 80W eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N60W. A ridge across the waters to the north of the area will shift southward, gradually, into the upcoming weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday, then stall near or just to the north of 31N, from Sunday night through Monday. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this weekend in the waters that are to the N of 29N. A tropical wave may increase the wind speeds and the sea heights in the waters that are to the E of 65W, from Sunday through early next week. $$ Christensen