000 AXNT20 KNHC 261619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Laura is centered near 27.0N 92.0W at 26/1500 UTC or 200 nm SSE of Lake Charles Louisiana moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, making Laura a Major Category 3 Hurricane. The satellite presentation of Laura continues to improve and there is numerous strong convection within 210 nm all quadrants except 120 nm SW quadrants. Additional strengthening is anticipated today and Laura is forecast to be an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the coast near the LA/TX border by late tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 02N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 33W and 43W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W S of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the central part of the coastal sections of Mauritania southwestward to 12N30W to 09N40W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located over the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands and from 08N to 15N E of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Major Hurricane Laura. The remnants of Marco have dissipated off the TX coast and any related convection has ended. Away from Hurricane Laura, which covers most of the basin, dry conditions exist, with mainly fresh SE winds over the eastern and southern Gulf due to the pressure gradient between Laura and high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Major Hurricane Laura is producing very dangerous, life- threatening marine conditions across the northern Gulf offshore waters. The center of Laura will approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts and move to 28.5N 93.2W this evening, move inland to 31.0N 93.8W Thu morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 33.7N 93.5W Thu evening. Long-period swell from Laura will impact much of the basin through Thu. Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the eastern Gulf in the wake of Laura. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level low pressure stretching southward from the Cayman Islands is creating lift and instability across much of the western Caribbean this morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 10N to 20N between 75W and 85W. An Atlantic high pressure ridge will gradually shift southward over the next few days, leading to increasing trade winds over the central Caribbean. A tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure around 1020 mb extends along 30N across most of the basin, allowing for dry conditions and moderate to fresh trades to its south. This ridge will gradually slide south into the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall just north of the area Sun night. Fresh SW winds will precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N. $$ KONARIK