000 AXNT20 KNHC 252347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Laura is centered near 24.7N 88.3W at 25/2100 UTC or 420 nm SE of Lake Charles Louisiana moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 27N between 85W and 89W. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. ..TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 02N-17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between 22W-34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from near the border of French Guiana and Brazil to 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-07N between 48W-52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the northernmost coastal sections of Mauritania to 19N16W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N53W to near the border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-14N between 12W-18W and from 06N-08N between 38W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special features section above for details on Hurricane Laura. Outside of Laura, the post-tropical/remnant low of Marco is near 29N92W with a pressure of 1010 mb and moving westward at 5-10 kt. The low continues to spin down and will soon become a trough as it continues westward for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers are near the low. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is in the western Gulf of Mexico from 18N-26N and W of 96W. Expect long-period swell from Laura to impact most of the basin through Thu. Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the eastern Gulf in the wake of Laura through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection due to Hurricane Laura is over the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel as described above. Very active convection is noted in the SW Caribbean as the monsoon trough extends from the east Pacific along 10N/11N to northern Colombia. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 14N and W of 74W. Atlantic high pressure will gradually shift southward through the next few days leading to an increase of trade winds over the central and northeast portions of the Caribbean as Hurricane Laura continues to move away from the basin. Fresh to strong winds will also develop in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras and E-SE of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed night through the weekend, mainly at night. A tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 24N68W to the N-central coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 21N-25N between 68W-72W. A 1019 mb high is noted SE of Charleston, South Carolina near 32N77W. Another 1019 mb high is noted near 31N35W. Broad high pressure ridging covers the waters N of 24N supporting mainly moderate trades S of 24N and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 24N. An area of 8-9 ft seas in mixed swell from roughly 16N-26N between 28W-40W will gradually decay by the end of the week. The high offshore of the Carolinas will gradually shift southward through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds over the SW part of the area will diminish to mainly moderate tonight. $$ Lewitsky