000 AXNT20 KNHC 211749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 17.0N 60.2W at 21/1500 UTC or 182 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N-21N between 57W-64W. A generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 16.6N 84.1W at 21/1500 UTC or 143 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N-22N between 79W-86W. A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the coast of Africa has an axis along 20W south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-17N between 17W-23W. This wave is expected to move farther offshore over the far eastern tropical Atlantic today. Conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and the system could become a tropical depression before environmental conditions become less favorable for development early next week. Regardless of development it will likely bring gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend, as well as heavy rains that could cause flooding. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 69W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N18W to 08N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to to the coast of Suriname near 06N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 24W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression Fourteen. A stationary front remains draped along the north-central Gulf Coast today. Scattered thunderstorms are noted near this boundary over the coastal waters of Louisiana. in addition, widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 87W to include Florida. Gentle winds prevail across the basin, with some moderate winds over the NE Gulf and near the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 3 ft or less across the offshore waters. Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N 77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue. Tropical Depression Fourteen is near 16.6N 84.1W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N 85.0W this evening, move to 18.6N 85.9W Sat morning, 20.0N 86.9W Sat evening, inland to 21.5N 88.2W Sun morning, 23.2N 89.7W Sun evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25.1N 91.4W Mon morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.7N 94.1W by early Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Fourteen. Scatterometer data shows moderate trades over the south-central Caribbean, with locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere outside of T.D. Fourteen, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N 77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue. Tropical Depression Fourteen is near 16.6N 84.1W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N 85.0W this evening, move to 18.6N 85.9W Sat morning, 20.0N 86.9W Sat evening, inland to 21.5N 88.2W Sun morning, 23.2N 89.7W Sun evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25.1N 91.4W Mon morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.7N 94.1W by early Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Laura. Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N51W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N18W to 22N34W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N 77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue. $$ FORMOSA