000 AXNT20 KNHC 210512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 17.3N 56.4W at 21/0300 UTC or about 340 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving ESE at 20 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the northern semicircle and within 200 nm of the southern semicircle. Seas are up to 9 ft near the center. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 14.9N 82.2W at 21/0300 UTC or about 55 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua and Honduras border moving WNW at 12 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 140 nm of the northern semicircle with scattered showers within 100 nm of the southern semicircle. Some of the convective activity is moving inland along the Honduras and Nicaragua coast. Seas are up to 9 ft near the center. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system is expected to enhance rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend, which may result in some areas of significant flash flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPATA.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the Africa coast has an axis along 18W from 18N southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave along the Senegal coast near the area of the monsoon trough. Showers are within 50 nm of the wave. This wave is expected to move offshore over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development early next week. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend. This wave has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours but a medium chance of development within 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 58W from 21N southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave and T.D. Thirteen, from 15N-19N between 57W-60W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 66W from 21N southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across Puerto Rico and moving into the Mona Passage, from 16N-20N between 64W-68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N24W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 14N54W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 22W-42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near T.D. Thirteen and the ITCZ. See the Special Features section for more information. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped right along the coast of western Louisiana into east Texas. A weak surface trough extends across the Gulf from 26N91W to 21N93W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms continue across the eastern Gulf, N of 22N and E of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail with seas 3-4 ft in the north- central Gulf. Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N 72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon. Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.5N 83.8W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 85.1W Fri evening, 18.2N 86.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N 87.2W Sat evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 88.5W Sun morning, and 23.2N 89.8W Sun evening. Fourteen will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.7N 92.3W late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above discussion in Special Features for information on T.D. Fourteen. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough north of Colombia, S of 14N between 73W-77W. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along and south of Cuba, N of 19N between 80W-85W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across most of the Caribbean with light winds in the SW basin. Seas range 3-6 ft across the basin, with 9 ft near T.D. Fourteen. Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N 72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon. Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.5N 83.8W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 85.1W Fri evening, 18.2N 86.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N 87.2W Sat evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 88.5W Sun morning, and 23.2N 89.8W Sun evening. Fourteen will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.7N 92.3W late Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See above discussion in Special Features regarding Tropical Depression Thirteen. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters east of Florida and the northern Bahamas, N of 26N and W of 75W. A weak cold front continues to drop southward across the central and eastern Atlantic, stretching from 31N22W to 25N29W to 25N40W. Showers are noted along the boundary. Ridging continues to span across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N53W. Light winds are near the center of the high, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the Western Sahara coast. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near T.D. Thirteen. Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N 72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon. $$ AReinhart