000 AXNT20 KNHC 200001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2332 UTC Wed Aug 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W from Hispaniola southward with a 1009 mb low centered at 14N73W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate and isolated strong is noted from 15N-18N between 73W-78W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N46W, about 730 nm to the east of the Windward Islands. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N-15N between 46W-50W. The associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could be required as early as this evening. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 40W from 18N southward, moving westward 15-20 knots. No significant deep convection is occurring currently in association with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 56W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered showers are occurring from 10N-15N between 55W-59W. any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 17N17W to 13N35W. The ITCZ is along 10N50W to 10N61W at the coast of Venezuela. Scattered moderate and isolated strong is noted from 07N-10N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the NW Gulf of Mexico from the E Texas coast to Mississippi. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N89W to 27N96W. Isolated showers are occurring over the Gulf this evening. Weak high pressure across the basin will maintain generally tranquil conditions across the Gulf through the rest of the week. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation by this weekend, and this system is expected to approach the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel early Sat and then emerge in the southern Gulf Sat night through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above discussion in Special Features for the Tropical Wave over the Caribbean. Besides the wave, a weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High northeast of the Caribbean and the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is promoting only gentle to moderate trades in the Caribbean away from the vicinity of the tropical wave. No other significant deep convection is noted in the Caribbean, outside of that caused by the tropical wave. This wave and associated surface low pressure should slow down and turn W-NW in the western Caribbean at the end of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend in the NW Caribbean. There is a high chance of tropical formation through Fri afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See above discussion in Special Features for Low east of the Windward Islands. Ridging from the 1020 mb Bermuda High at 30N50W extends west-southwestward to 23N70W and eastward to 30N20W. Away from the low, easterly trades south of the Bermuda High are generally moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N west of 74W, over and north of the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection also is noted north of 25N between 65W-70W. A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days is medium. $$ Landsea