000 AXNT20 KNHC 190512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad and elongated area of low pressure near 11N41W, about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving W at 15-20 kt. This system continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west- northwestward across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A 1008 mb low is located near 13N69W and is accompanied by a tropical wave along 69W, southward from 18N, and is moving W at 15 kt. This system is moving across the central Caribbean and is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance of formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 35W, southward from 18N and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Showers are within 100 nm of this wave from 07N-15N. Over the next day or two, this wave is forecast to approach the low pressure mentioned above in the Special Features section. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 50W, southward from 21N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave. See the Special Features section for more information on the tropical wave along 69W in the central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania, Africa near 20N16W to 15N26W to 09N50W. The ITCZ begins near 09N51W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Africa, well south of the monsoon trough, from 06N-12N and E of 18W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 30W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough is inducing a surface trough in the north- central Gulf from 29N91W to 25N91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along this trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the eastern Gulf, N of 23N and E of 89W. Light variable winds are seen throughout the basin. Seas range from 1-2 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will prevail across the Gulf through Wed night before high pressure over the central Atlantic builds modestly across Florida and into the eastern basin Thu through Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds are expected over the south central Gulf Sat and Sun with and ahead of a potential low pressure approaching the region from the northwest Caribbean and Cuba. This low has a potential for tropical development. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave and low along 69W, scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean is off the coast of Colombia and Panama, S of 12N between 75W-83W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in between Cuba and Jamaica in addition to the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan. Moderate to fresh trades are near the tropical wave in the east-central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range from 2 to 6 ft, with 10 ft near the 1008 mb low in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will quickly move across the across the Caribbean Sea. This fast motion should limit development through Wed, but as the wave begins to slow down by late week in the western Caribbean, environmental conditions should become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression. There is a medium chance of tropical development through Thu, then a high chance through the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure associated with another tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlc waters late Thu and approach the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on the low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic. A trough is north of the Turks and Caicos from 29N69W to 23N72W. Scattered moderate convection is near this trough from 24N-28N between 63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas, N of 23N between 74W-80W. Otherwise, high pressure stretches across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N54W and a 1022 mb high near 29N34W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic from 12N-24N between 34W-57W, north of the Mona Passage, and off the coast of Western Sahara, with light to gentle winds noted across the rest of the basin. Seas range 4-9 ft. For the forecast, the broad and elongated area of low pressure is forecast to approach the Leeward Islands Fri, move across or just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sat, and then through the southern Bahamas Sat night and Sun. $$ AReinhart