000 AXNT20 KNHC 181009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low near 12N38W is moving W at 15-20 kt. This location is about 800 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms displaced to the west of an elongated surface circulation. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen from 08N-14N between 34W- 42W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two. The chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is high. This system may approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands by Friday or early Saturday. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 02N-21N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is moving through a moist surrounding environment. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 26W and 42W. Over the next day or two, this wave is forecast to approach the low pressure mentioned above in the Special Features section and its associated tropical wave. A strong tropical wave is moving through the Lesser Antilles with axis along 65W from 05N-21N, moving W at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen over NE Venezuela to the SW part of Trinidad and the waters west of Trinidad. Fresh to strong winds exist throughout the Leeward Islands and adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands will gradually subside this morning. This wave is expected to continue moving quickly W over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to limit significant development. After that time, the system is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week. The chance of development within the next 48 hours is low, with a moderate chance later in the week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania, Africa near 20N16W southwestward to 12N130W to 12N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and low pressure described above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 42W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from near Mobile Alabama to near Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered moderate convection is noted just offshore the central Florida peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure dominates, with light to gentle winds across the basin. The stationary front from near Mobile to Corpus Christi will dissipate this morning. High pressure will extend over the eastern and southern Gulf, leading to light winds and slight seas. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds are possible this weekend over the south central Gulf ahead of possible low pressure approaching the region from south and east CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere across the basin, scattered moderate convection exists in the NW Carribbean. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly S of 13N from the Gulf of Venezuela westward. Generally moderate trades exist over the central and western Carribbean this morning. The strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has a low chance of tropical formation in the eastern or central Caribbean through midweek, but a medium chance late week in the western Caribbean. Looking ahead, low pressure is likely to approach Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands Fri or Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on the low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic. A weak stationary front extends from just off the Georgia coast NE to offshore Cape Hatteras. Scattered moderate convection exists along and to the SE of this front, to as far S as the northernmost Bahamas. A broad and deep layer ridge resides along 30N, with 1019 mb surface centers near 29N55W and 30N30W. On the western periphery of this high, a surface trough extends from 29N69W to 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection and generally fresh SE winds are noted within about 150 nm of this trough. South of the broad ridge, generally fresh trades exist between 25W and 60W. Strong NE winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Africa north of 20N, with near gales north of 30N near the coast of Morocco. As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will dominate weather this week, bringing gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds to the area. A broad and elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is forecast to move W or WNW this week through an environment that is favorable for tropical development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two. The system is forecast to be near the Leeward Islands Fri or Sat. $$ KONARIK