000 AXNT20 KNHC 162318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 718 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants of Josephine are centered near 20.9N 65.8W at 16/2100 UTC or 220 nm NW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N-28N between 60W-65W. The remnants are forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Please read the last NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 20W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 17W-23W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W and from 08N-24N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis and the monsoon trough along 13N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 04N-13N between 46W-59W. The system is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 12N22W to 12N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 12N50W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 12N54W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-14N and west of 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high near 26N94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Bay of Campeche associated to a surface trough that extends from 23N97W to 18N94W. Another trough extends over the northeast Gulf from 29N84W to 27N90W with scattered showers. Mid to upper level trough moving eastward across the East coast is pushing a cold front across the Florida Panhandle with scattered showers. Weak high pressure will continue supporting gentle winds and low seas across the through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are possible late this evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may stall along the northern Gulf coast Mon into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection over Central America and the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 10N Between 77W-84W. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail. Moderate trades are noted across most of the basin, with some locally fresh east winds occurring off the coast of Colombia. Low pressure of 1010 mb, remnants of Josephine near 21N65W, will move west-northwest tonight and dissipate late tonight or early Mon morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, then diminish to mainly moderate winds. A tropical wave is forecast to cross the Windward and southern Leeward Islands tonight into early Mon, then move across the eastern Caribbean early this week. The wave will then move across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter part of the week. It will be followed by fresh to strong east winds and also be accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the sections above for details on the remnants of Josephine and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N52W. Fair weather prevails across the basin due to this. Low pressure of 1010 mb, remnants of Josephine near 21N65W, will move west-northwest tonight and dissipate late tonight or early Mon morning. Otherwise, persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to southeast winds. A weak cold front may stall just offshore the southeast U.S. coast early this week. $$ ERA