000 AXNT20 KNHC 161631 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Josephine is centered near 20.4N 65.0W at 16/1500 UTC or 195 nm NW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 260 nm in the NE quadrant, and 300 nm in the SE quadrant. A turn towards the northwest is expected by tonight, with Josephine or its remnants forecast to slow down and recurve toward the north and northeast on Tue and Tue night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Mon. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Josephine is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa along 16W this morning. The wave axis extends from 04N to 11N and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An area of scattered moderate convection exists from 04N to 11N between 13W-20W. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, from 11N south, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis near the monsoon trough. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 20N southward, moving west at 15 kt. From 04N to 12N between 45W and 51W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring. This wave is forecast to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tue. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, as well as over the next 5 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 12N34W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N35W to 11N46W, then resumes west of a tropical wave along 49W, from 11N51W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 51W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Bay of Campeche associated to a surface trough near 22N97W to 18N93W, mainly south of 23N. Mid to upper level trough moving eastward across the East coast is pushing a cold front SE across the Southeast Plains. Scattered moderate convection is occurring just off the Louisiana and Florida Panhandle, north of 25N and east of 90W. Weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to across the central Gulf will support gentle winds and low seas across the through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are possible tonight in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may stall along the northern Gulf coast Mon into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 11N Between 75W-82W. Otherwise mainly dry conditions prevail. See the Special Features section above for information on the potential for heavy rain in the far NE Caribbean from Tropical Storm Josephine today and Mon as it passes N and E of the basin. Moderate trades exist across most of the basin, with some locally fresh east winds occurring off the coast of Colombia. Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Josephine will pass well north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands today and tonight, then move farther away from the area Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through early week, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The tropical wave along 49W is forecast to cross the Windward and southern Leeward Islands tonight into early Mon, then move across the eastern Caribbean early this week and by the western Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter part of the week. It will be accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Josephine. A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from a 1024 mb high S of the Azores to a 1021 mb high near 29N51W to southern Florida, leading to gentle winds and fair weather north of 25N. In fact, fair weather prevails across the basin north of 20N, except for Tropical Depression Josephine. Farther west, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N between 77W- 79W as cold front near the East coast approaches the Western Atlantic. Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Josephine near 20.4N 65.0W 1009 mb at 11 AM EDT. Josephine will move to 21.3N 66.4W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low Mon morning. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by early Thu. Otherwise, the persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to southeast winds. A weak cold front may stall just offshore the southeast U.S. coast early next week. $$ MTorres